Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

oh no, that’s the first symptom. mcfaul has gotten the measheimerpox.

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It’s that any time any country with nuclear weapons invades another, they should just sit back and enjoy it. Unless that country is America, then it’s evil that should be battled.

Lol nice find, even Mearsheimer thinks Mearsheimer is full of shit.

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Didn’t realize Russia was given Donbas in 2014, good to know. Learn something new every day!

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woah hold on there buddy

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https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1529475216606478336

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So how bad is the battle of donbas going right now?

Ukraine war twitter feeds arent optimistic.

Ukraine losing small ground here and there?

Just read that apparently the NATO decided that they wont supply any heavy tanks, armored personnel carriers or planes that were built in the west to Ukraine. They are afraid that they become war party if they do this.

But howitzers, harpoon missiles, switchblades, javelins, NLAWs and access to any intelligence they need is ok. Total Calvinball.

How is an armored personnel carrier more likely to get us into WWIII than a howitzer?

Do you have a link?

Its german: Ukraine-Krieg: NATO-Staaten verzichten auf Lieferung schwerer Panzer - n-tv.de
There wont be an official resolution since Nato doesnt deliver weapons directly. Only the members of NATO do but so far all members complied with this informal rule. They even stopped the delivery of Migs from Poland out of fear that Russia could missunderstand that.

This. Nothing in that article makes sense. They allegedly have decided that it’s okay to deliver Eastern European/Soviet model tanks but not Western model tanks because the latter might make them belligerents while the former doesn’t.

Risk analyzes could change

Agreements in the past have been indirectly confirmed by French President Emmanuel Macron, among others. In March, after a special summit of the heads of state and government of the NATO countries on the subject of arms deliveries, he said: “There is a limit, and that is not becoming a party to the war.” This border is shared by all Allies and that is why no one has yet delivered weapons such as airplanes.

The line is exactly where we say it is, and the line can change whenever we want it to.

It’s also not clear who said that.

Consider that the goal might be to not provide a level of support sufficient to win the war but rather that aims to bleed Russia or maybe produce a stalemate. If Ukraine is strong enough to deal Russia an outright defeat and maybe have them drive into Crimea or pre-invasion pro-Russian Donbas, that might cause Russia to escalate in ways that Western leaders might not want. Whereas Russia will be less likely to escalate if there is a plausible path to grinding out a much more costly than forecast victory.

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https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1529499791566176256

thread

That’s way more shrewd than I expect for example the German government to be. Occam’s razor says that they are just weak-tight button mashers.

Thats what I think too.

Hell if you are Ukrainian you probably realize that you wont get enough help to take your country back unless the russian side crumbles due to outside circumstance like Putins death or revolts. If Russian occupation wasnt so cruel they should give up so that Russia can move its forces to Finland and deter them from joining NATO and fuck the west.

Its kinda sickening but probably what I expected all along.

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And maybe a lesson to China? If the US weapons and intelligence and Ukraine can cause all these problems for Russia, including sinking a Russian warship, what would more overt US support for a much more capable Taiwanese military do to China if they try to invade Taiwan?

oh to be young and have my bony switchbladed again.

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1529521698831323136?s=20&t=iX2T0Oot4HEAB2n67H098A