Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

I don’t think there is one, not in the short term.

In the US the grunts tolerate them thanks to NCO leadership. There are all kinds of sayings in the US army about sergeants actually running things, and junior officers have to understand that.

In Russia they hate them.

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https://twitter.com/MaxBoot/status/1513857919674204164?t=5WN63NOBkHmI2lxTOeY3Mw&s=19

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yeah, this is a big problem IMO

https://twitter.com/Doctrine_Man/status/1513965325250932741?t=3CCPwRZx_jBSsB_O973Evg&s=19

Solid thread on Russia and NCOs.

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Becoming an officer (getting your “commission”) is a separate process than just enlisting at your local recruiter.

One distinguishing factor is that to be eligible to become an officer, you have to have a college degree. Enlisted is jut High School or equivalent, which is why you see recruiters in high school career days, etc.

if you enlist then use your benefits to get a degree, there are ways to apply to go to officer training and get your commission. However, if you reach mid-to-senior enlisted ranks, it’s often better for your career to stay enlisted, even if you have a phd.

As a non-military analogy, think of the enlisted folks as the people who run/work the factory, and the officers as the ones who run the company. (that’s simplistic, but generally accurate). To continue that analogy, if the middle manager doesn’t listen to the factory foreman, it can fuck a lot of shit up. Same thing. If the junior or mid-grade officers don’t listen to their senior NCOs, it can fuck a lot of shit up. Also like the analogy, junior and midgrade officers often think they are hot shit and better than the enlisted troops, and it gets them in trouble :stuck_out_tongue:

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What’s the Russian word for “fragging”?

Then find me an off-ramp where Donbas is firmly under Ukrainian control.

In movies they’re usually portrayed as incompetent under fire due to all book learnin’ and no practical experience. Real life sentiment probably isn’t much different.

This always seemed like the most accurate portrayal I’ve seen showing the interaction between the NCOs and commissioned officers.

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Irpin:

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In real life, if the junior officers are humble and know to listen to their NCOs, then it works fine

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Like a decade ago I saw a PBS News hour segment on the top NCO in the army. It’s a pretty interesting position, held by one person. It’s an NCO but protocol is followed as if he’s a general.

Doesn’t get fragged if he doesn’t butt into your side business selling ammo.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1515412789698912266?s=21

This is one of the possible off-ramps for Putin: just declare mission accomplished and go home. It‘s encouraging that state propaganda is at least floating the idea.

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I can’t wait for the witness testimony part of the investigation:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1515248504708513793

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this is the only realistic one I see at this point. Just say we did what we wanted, get the MISSION ACCOMPLISHED photo op a la Dubya, and go home and pretend like you won. There’s no better outcome for putin at this point. Every other outcome is either stalemate and attrition or escalation. All of them are worse for putin even if some of them are more worse for ukraine.

once Biden got NATO to stick together, Putin was basically done, it’s just a matter of how much he sets on fire before he accepts reality at this point.

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I don’t know much about naval radar, is it actually the case that the moskva was misdirected by a drone and that got them to focus their radar in the wrong direction while the missiles were coming from the other direction? If so it seems like that’s a one-shot deal and the Russians know not to fall for it again, but if it was something else, a technical limitation of Russia’s naval radar technology (&c), the Ukrainians could potentially sink the rest of the black sea fleet (constrained by how many of these Neptune missiles they have, which I gather is not a huge number).

Is this basically accurate? The fact that they didn’t immediately light up more boats implies it was probably the former?

there’s an intercepted radio call between two officers who are discussing briefly that moskva is hit. i listened to it, but the conversation doesn’t totally say they were distracted like that. one officer says they must have had a way to target moskva somehow, mentions that they had been tracking a drone earlier, and speculates that perhaps that drone provided guidance. but again that’s the only open source intel on moskva that implies it. perhaps there’s more, but the officer could also be reading something in the tealeaves.