Whoever ousts Putin would then own the war and its outcome. So the way I see it, the coup could come from people who think escalation (a full mobilization and/or use of nuclear) could win the war or it could come from those who want to negotiate a peace. The war going poorly is a deterrent for anyone else to do a coup.
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I guess Putin gave a speech today on annexing parts of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1575839183687790594?s=20&t=ALLniG-SRgv_AiyI69Jvhg
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1575840901124980737?s=20&t=ALLniG-SRgv_AiyI69Jvhg
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1575842271152705536?s=20&t=ALLniG-SRgv_AiyI69Jvhg
In his speech today, Vladimir Putin said the United States had created a “precedent” by using nuclear weapons against Japan at the end of World War Two.
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Huh? I think the most hopium-infused take on the potential benefits of a coup that I can recall are simply that the new dictator wouldn’t be so stupid as to keep sacrificing hundreds of thousands of his citizens in a losing effort, not that he’d be some Yeltsin-esque pro-West reformer.
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I don’t think it’s clear that Putin’s power is truly as absolute as Saddam’s. Putin at least puts up a farce that he has popular backing to give his authority legitimacy. The Russians conduct sham polls, and they hold sham elections, and there’s a sham legislature that passes whatever Putin wants but that at least gives cover of popular signoff on what he wants. I don’t think that was true of Saddam. If things get so bad that protesters fill Red Square day in and day out like they filled Tahrir Square in Cairo, does Putin just start slaughtering them until they disperse? I’m not sure, but I think Saddam would.
So, I don’t think it’s reasonable to use a binary classification of “under threat of revolution if defeated” or not. It’s better to use a continuum, and I think Putin isn’t as close to Saddam on that continuum as you suggest. He certainly isn’t acting like he is.
This is explained by the fact that this scenario is extremely far removed from what Russia considers its minimum outcome for the war, something which will have to change in order for there to be peace (unless Russia can force Ukraine’s minimum to change).
This also seems to be out of line with what both sides consider a minimum outcome, and no side has been beaten back enough to change that attitude.
The war sure seems popular in Russia, that’s why draft officers are getting murdered and there’s been a mass exodus of men out of the country.
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Overall popularity may matter a lot less than popularity among core supporters, or popularity among people with power around you, at least depending on the situation. We mock Trump for, ahem, trumpeting his 96% approval rating from the Republican party even while his overall is sub 40%, but that matters a ton when the Republican party gets to pick one of two candidates. Similarly, the popularity of the war among ethnic minorities in the hinterlands matters a whole lot less than that of ethnic Russians in Moscow, which also matters a whole lot less than that of actual key holders in the Kremlin.
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The idea here is that the fascist strongman declares that he enjoys the popular support of all True Patriots. What is a True Patriot, you may ask. Well, it’s a person that supports Dear Leader! This is the model of Republicans and people like Bolsonaro as well. Its a self fulfilling belief system that allows fascist supporters to justify their objectively oppressive actions.
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Sadaam was elected President twice - in 1995 and 2002. Both times had 100% turnout. The first time he got 99.99% of the vote, but shored up that remaining .01% to get a perfect 100% in 2002.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Iraqi_presidential_referendum
They also held elections from a Council of Representatives, but only Baathists were every elected.
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Conceded. It’s been a while since Saddam.
oh keeed. 90% of people asked choose not to participate in polls on putin and the war. but here’s keeed, reposting whatever he has read on /r/meashjeasmer over here. everything old is new again, and it coincides with big putin moves in the news as well
+1. another example, Ceucescu official approval was in the high 90s on the eve of his overthrow too, which started as he was speaking to a large rallly
Ah, yes, need to unskew those polls.
I don’t claim to know what the situation actually is in Russia but according to public surveys going back years, Putin’s public approval went up with the start of the war. And it’s taken a dip since the mobilization but still higher than pre war levels.
Lololol
Can really rely on that wartime Russian media and polls in a country where holding a random sign gets you arrested
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quick, name 5 differences between 2014 crimea (or 2008 georgia, or second chechen war) and 2022 ukraine.
5. it is currently illegal to disseminate information “disparaging the russian army”. war isn’t declared though. not even “war time”
4. it is currently illegal to protest with an empty sign while standing alone
3. it is currently illegal to donate to journalists who have been marked as “foreign agents”
2. it is currently illegal to relocate within russia (!) as in leave the oblast’ where you live, because army needs to find you for mobilization.
1. there are currently 50k+ dead russian servicemen, and thousands of destroyed russian armor in ukraine. also tens of thousands of wounded.
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Ok? So you’re saying that there’s a huge mass of discontent not being measured? Maybe. I’ve never been to Russia and have no way of knowing if that’s true or not. But everything I’ve read in western media suggests the war is popular.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/russia-war-ukraine-public-opinion/
A couple weeks ago, Twitter was giddy at Ukraine’s counterattack on Russian forces to retake land that had been occupied while driving Russian troops out of the country. The end of the war and defeat of the Russians seemed to be a mere formality at that point.
Today, Putin announces annexation of a large swatch of occupied Ukraine.
Can someone give me cliffs on what the hell is actually going on?
Putin is responding to battlefield losses by doubling down. The annexation is meant to shore up domestic support.
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maybe you should be required to put this disclaimer at the top of every post in this thread. just a thought
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I don’t think the bold was the consensus - nor was it right. Ukraine did make some solid gains, but they mostly took areas where Russia did not put up much resistance (although this was in part because Ukraine had been weakening those positions). It was always going to be a long slog to retake the rest of Ukraine.
It seems since the big counteroffensive, Ukraine is still making some gains, but mostly pretty small and Russia is still pushing in some areas as well.
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