Interesting Iowa numbers.
https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1159483800646311936?s=19
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I put in a decent-size bet that Tulsi wouldn’t qualify for the next debate; now its super exciting for me when these polls come in. Tulsi needs 3 more polls of >2% to get in, I’m feeling good but this is a sweat.
News for the #YangGang: looks like he’s in.
Yeah I lived there for the first ~26 years of my life before moving to Baltimore. Most of the state is pretty deep red, and the pockets of blue-ish counties outside of Philly/Pittsburgh are not progressive.
This is spitballing, but I think that places like PA/Ohio/WV and to a lesser extent the Midwest were more solidly blue when there were lots of unions and no minorities to fear monger about. As the latent racism of central Pennsylvanians turn into real encounters with minorities, and as those people are more specifically targeted by the GOP with racist rhetoric, I think they’ll continue to trend redder.
I’ve watched my mom go from a moderate person who, while probably mildly racist, never really expressed it publicly, probably voted for Bill Clinton and would temper my dads crazy rants to someone who goes crazy about the house down the street with six Mexican people living in it. Anecdotal, but I don’t think it’s isolated.
So if she gets 4 yougov polls in the +2 range she’s in or does it have to be separate polling outlets?
Funny how Trump’s level playing field always seems to benefit Americans.
I think that counts.
My betting strategy is to see what Luckbox thinks and go hard against that. It’s just like betting against Ron Paul back in the day.
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I just found the language I was looking for, and it appears you can’t use the same vendor twice:
But on July 30, the DNC sent a memo to all presidential candidates obtained by Politico and The Hill reminding them that campaigns cannot use two polls from the same vendor — in this case, NBC — that cover the same geographic area
Is your bet clear on that language, or is it irrelevant to the bet?
WSJ: Banks Hand Over Trump Docs To House, State Investigators
Ooooh there’s gonna be some “Presidential Harrassment!” rage tweeting later.
CNN just showed video of Trump in the hospital in El Paso bragging that his rally in El Paso was bigger than Beto’s. #ConsolerInChief
https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1159251261126053888
They talked about human rights, how to most efficiently violate them, maybe
OK, Twitter. Do Trump next.
QFT.
Dear diary…
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