Trump is going to steal the election, I have 0 doubt
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Why would there be any doubt? He has been telling the world he was going to do it since this election cycle started and he was complaining about Dem election rigging.
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As far as I’m concerned the only real question that’s left is what are people going to do about it when he does?
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Could be normalcy bias but I still believe if the margin is big enough on election night that he won’t be able to. I think it will be, but that does rest on the actual voting machines actually counting in person votes correctly which 🤷
Maybe I’ve got this wrong but aren’t the chances of that size victory on election night pretty slim given the likely imbalance between Dem and GOP postal voters?
Nobody knows I don’t think
I’m operating off the premise that it’s always projection with these guys. They always accuse other people of what they are doing, because it’s their only defense. Granted, it’s incredibly effective from what I can tell.
This is an interesting question but I am not seeing any reason to be very enthusiastic. For starters, 1/3 of the country will delight in being able to punch down at liberals, but I assume you are thinking specifically about opposition.
Lawbro types will naval gaze with great intensity, with no impact. I would more or less include Dem politicians here. They will just keep expressing concern and sending letters.
The relatively well off have been rewarded all their lives by focusing intensely on their own affairs and just letting the system work. On November 4 most office workers and professionals will do what they always do - check their email, review their to do list, sign into conference calls. I just can’t see those people (and I’m one of them) just turning their attention away from work. We’re trained to not let the world interfere with out corporate objectives.
Will be interesting to see how labour organizations react. Unions don’t have much power in USA#1 but they have some. Big strikes would actually be effective.
That kind of leaves random individuals that are willing to risk their lives to protest. So that seems like something on the lines of the protests we’ve seen already this year, maybe one order of magnitude larger, and with proportionally more violence.
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As part of team lawbro and team comfortable white guy, I think about this every day. When faced with an authoritarian takeover of your country. What is the right thing to do? What am I willing to do? I don’t have good answers to those questions.
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I’m kinda thinking he doesnt have the balls. Straight up stealing the election is a super crazy move.
I think he will try to cheat, litigate etc but will stop short of something like snatching ballots because he doesnt have the balls.
Wild card is if he knows he will go to jail for crimes we dont know about and its do or die for him.
But its likely I just cant mentally deal with the fact were drawing nearly dead to living in a right wing hellscape for the rest of my life.
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This is why its beneficial to have cult members that will do whatever you tell them to do.
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He’s stealing it.
Probably ponied here but it deserves another posting. It’s incredibly long.
The “frog boiling” method of Trump’s delegitimization of the election is so scary. It even has people on this forum questioning if he will do it. Of course he will. Every shred of data over the past 5 years says he has no respect for institutions and is a clinical sociopath.
What more do you need to know?
Also, he won’t have to do anything. His minions will do it all for him. Each only having to do one small act they can rationalize. “It’s the right thing to do to discount these 500 ballots because they are clearly suspect. This is just my small riding so it won’t mean much.” “I’m just protecting this polling place by guarding it on Election Day. It won’t effect good honest people to vote”
Lather, rinse, repeat and the US is a autocracy.
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FYT
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I’d preface this by saying fuck the folks at The Bulwark. Not as much as the Lincoln Project people, but fuck 'em quite a bit. Nonetheless, this seems pretty on the nose:
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Whoever it was that replied to him that lower probability events need to be given extra consideration when the consequences are extreme deserves a gold star.
I work with microbes. When it comes to conditions of pH, temperature, and aeration any 3D response surface curves always have edges that are like falling off a table.
It tolerates pH or temperature well until you cross a threshold and then it crashes. Two acidic and the membrane doesn’t function properly. Too hot and a key enzyme denatures.
Bad scientists run DoE (design of experiments) that go outside these bounds and then factor them in to an overall response model. However the maths get all screwed up when the last 10% of change pushes the result to zero. It is important to understand where the table edges are. But averaging in 0 data is just going to give you the wrong overall answer and course of action.
Now imagine someone is sneaking into the lab and putting the thermal sensor in a beaker of water at the desired control temp but then overheating the actual fermenter with microbes. Then cooling it back down and putting the thermometer back in. So you temperature “looks normal”.
Now imagine they told you at 4pm they were coming back in at night to do this exactly and then at 8am you come in to find a tank full of dead microbes.
Now imagine they’ve told you this 50 times before and you still have no idea why your microbes are dead in the morning.
Who is the idiot in this scenario?
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I agree. I think it is worth repeating that Trump had a commission to investigate and attempt to delegitimize an ELECTION HE WON. Acting like he won’t do it if he loses just has absolutely zero supporting evidence. As Clovis said he has been laying the groundwork for this for a long time. He is now in the perfect position to get a 6-3 SC and execute it.
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I have no idea about microbes or denaturing, but this oddly specific analogy is pretty much in a nutshell why I enjoy this forum.
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Saying we’d all be sick and tired of him winning was one of the few truths he’s told.
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I’m having trouble accepting this as our reality. It’s unreal how opposite this country is going from how it should. A majority of Americans support liberal policies. A majority of American voters vote for Democrats. Yet the minority run the show and are on the brink of ruling for decades to come. How the f did they play the game so perfectly?