That’s a great question. We need to recruit a meteorologist.
New Orleans residents have a stronger Sharpie game than the rest of the Gulf Coast.
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They’re having a good year in that regard, and while I’m not necessarily rooting actively for hurricanes to hit other places other than rooting for them to avoid major population centers for less overall suffering, New Orleans obviously deserves a lot of hurricane luck given their bad run for a while.
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As a lurker of r/tropicalweather only during major hurricanes I have a pretty good understanding of how everything works. I wouldn’t say they leave Africa strong but they strengthen as they get closer to the gulf due to decreased wind sheer and the warmer water. Most storms are fish storms as they travel north in the Atlantic and never reach land.
Yup, worry about continued strengthening over the entire width of the Atlantic would leave us contemplating a category 10 crushing from Miami to Newfoundland.
They don’t keep gaining strength in a cumulative way. They gain and lose strength as they pass over warmer and cooler water.
Hurricanes are very fickle. For every wave that comes off Africa, maybe 10 become a hurricane and maybe one hits the East Coast. 20 knot wind sheer can make a Cat 5 decouple (convection gets swept away from center of circulation) and become a tropical storm in 12 hours. Hispaniola is nicknamed Shredderola because the mountains can destroy a hurricane.
There’s a reason only a handful of Cat 5 storms actually make landfall. It’s really hard.
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Max winds went up 20 mph in 3 hours because of course they did.
This seems to be the new normal - rapid intensification. A lot of storms seem to make landfall 1.5-2 categories stronger than expected 3-5 days out. This one may hit as a slow moving Cat 3, which could be pretty bad.
I knew this storm was coming directly for us. Been telling my Dad for the last 2 day that its stopped, the jet stream is weak and it will get pulled east. Oh well at least its just a 2. Lost my power ~11 pm but its back for now. Hopefully don’t need to go to work which is a few blocks away in the morning to turn on the generator. Any who, be safe all.
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Ah shit man you’re right in the thick it. I know you’ve been through it before. Be safe.
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Yeah dudes. Lost power last night around 10 then it was back on at 4 am just in time to see the update that it was going to be approximately a direct hit. When I woke up at 6 am the lights were out again and the water was dead to.
The storm was pretty scary for a 2 but thankfully it sped off and left much earlier than anticipated. Lots of knocked down trees and telephone poles, the i10 and gulf breeze bridge closed down, but nothing too crazy. Most of the scariness is that I wouldn’t have stayed in my apartment if I knew it would be a direct hit 2.
Luckily my work is right up the street and has had power so could come up here to use the restroom. Spent about an hour in line at a gas station earlier and another hour at a grocery store. At work know to take a hot shower then get a nice nights sleep after several kinda stressful days.
Haven’t heard from my Dad who lives in Milton. He’s supposed to have a generator but maybe his wife just doesn’t want to turn on the cell phone… Boomers. Hope to confirm he’s well soon.
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Everythings back on for me and heard through my brother late last night that Pops is ok. My Dad’s wife forgot she had a cellphone so they turned it on. All in all a pretty happy day all things considered.
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So we are already at Storm Alpha because once we reach the end we start the greek alphabet and this storm is close to Portugal. There is also a hurricane-like storm hitting Greece at the moment. Crazy year so far.
So 10/2 was earliest we ever named an S storm before this year. We may be halfway through the greek alphabet by 10/2 this year.
Omega Storm would be a great name for a low budget disaster movie.
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Obviously this is a pretty crazy year, but is part of the reason we have so many is that we are naming storms that previously would not have been named because we have better technology to detect what is and is not a tropical storm system?
Like this new Storm Alpha. It’s the easternmost storm in history. They’re officially calling it a “subtropical storm”. In the past, would we have just ignored this in terms of hurricane naming and just called it a strong storm over Iberia?
Yea. Subtropical storms weren’t named until recently. The NHC is fantastic but they do fudge their numbers. Sometimes these storms are named for 6-12 hours before they fall apart.
At what point does a storm get named?
When does a storm receive a name? Tropical storms are given names when they display a rotating circulation pattern and wind speeds of 39 miles per hour (63 kilometers per hour). A tropical storm develops into a hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 mph (119 kph)
Thats what google says so I think they follow some criterias and dont just name them for the sake of it. The beta storm was on the radar for a while now and only got named today. By saying we ignored these things in the past we could downplay the fact that the water is actually getting warmer, stays warmer even in regions where it wasnt the case before and creates the conditions for forming these storms in regions where they havent been before.
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We can be sure that the Beta storm will not develop into a hurricane.
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