Which is confusing, because Fort Myers was always forecasted to be in the path. As soon as the 3 day cone touches Florida, Fort Myers is at the far right of the cone. Regardless if it had a direct hit on Tampa, this hurricane was still going to hit Fort Myers pretty hard. That area was even the first section of “mainland” Florida to get a Tropical Storm Watch.
I think the big problem with the models is including the line that simply shows the center of the prediction cone. ETA, which I see my pony has died a very quick and painful death.
This is the archive of all the 3 day cone graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_no_line_and_wind
This is the first 3 day cone that shows the cone touching Florida, prediction from September 25th.
