I thought Andrew might have a worse death toll, but according to Google there were under a hundred deaths with Andrew.
Have a friend in Lehigh Acres that went radio silent.
Any updates from that area?
The reports from the Lee County Sheriff’s department sound like it’s still pretty chaotic.
This doesn’t surprise me given the insane amount of videos being posted of people just waltzing about in Fort Myers very obviously right before the storm surge. Do they say where the deaths are concentrated? I wonder how much of it is “I dont trust the damn MEDIUH to tell me what to do!”
To be clear, the death tolls aren’t confirmed. These were estimates based on the amount of emergency calls they received yesterday and overnight.
Sure, yea, I get that, but it seems to me these very likely will be confirmed. His language is a bit confusing, he’s like “We definitely know at least hundreds but not confirmed” and then a bit later “confirmed hundreds”
god it’s totally in that state’s range to “forget” to give evacuation orders to communities like this.
I’m highly skeptical of that number. Irma had like 7 immediate fatalities and it crushed the entire state. usually more people die from the aftermath of a storm than the storm itself.
I think the storm changing track in the final hours here was pretty bad. People in Tampa were expecting this. People in Ft. Meyers were not.
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that’s exactly what happened. I don’t think many of the models really predicted that severe a course change. Saturday last week it looked like it was going to skate the west coast and smoke the panhandle.
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Yeah the models don’t seem very good. I’m halfway expecting it to loop back down and crush Miami.
Maybe we should jail the scientists for having inaccurate models.
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Dude outside with the electric blowers 4 hours before a hurricane hits. Cmon man
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The media doing the probability cone would certainly help. People seeing the projected path hitting the panhandle last week and now it’s gonna be off the East coast into the Atlantic isn’t gonna put much faith in the model.
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Which is confusing, because Fort Myers was always forecasted to be in the path. As soon as the 3 day cone touches Florida, Fort Myers is at the far right of the cone. Regardless if it had a direct hit on Tampa, this hurricane was still going to hit Fort Myers pretty hard. That area was even the first section of “mainland” Florida to get a Tropical Storm Watch.
I think the big problem with the models is including the line that simply shows the center of the prediction cone. ETA, which I see my pony has died a very quick and painful death.
This is the archive of all the 3 day cone graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_no_line_and_wind
This is the first 3 day cone that shows the cone touching Florida, prediction from September 25th.
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Nah, they were talking about it the day before it hit. Because of the angle it was coming in, small deviations to the east or west would make a significant distance as to where it would make landfall.
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So one of the attorneys I work with represents a special district in the Lehigh Acres area. He said he hasn’t heard anything yet, but he imagined it was flooded prettt bad, but said they are far enough inland that it probably wasn’t anything life threatening.
i dont mean this as insultingly as it sounds but do we know floridians are that good at understanding probability?
The general public is awful at probabilities, not just in Florida.
My theory is that many people really only understand two probabilities: 50-50 and 100%/0%. They try to round every thing to the nearest on, so anything that is 80% or more is treated as a sure thing and they flip out if it doesn’t happen.
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