Early Voting Updates
(all sourced from here: 2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics)
Texas: is up to 76 percent of 2016 turnout with 6 days of early voting left to go. Texas has been averaging more than 5 percent more per day each day, so if that pace keeps up Texas is going to hit 100 percent of total 2016 turnout before we even get to election day. Texas does not further break down it’s numbers so we don’t know much about which parties or demographics these votes are coming from.
North Carolina: Is up to 62 percent of it’s 2016 total turnout. NC also appears like it might at least get the 90’s before election day at this rate. NC does break down the numbers and they sure as hell look good to me. with 62 percent of the total 2016 vote already in, Democrats lead republicans by 5 points in early in person voting and by 30 points in mailed in voting. The total early vote + absentee vote in NC right now is:
Democrats: 1,206,995
Republicans: 879,222
So out of that Democrats are leading by 16 points in the total early combined vote of party-affiliated ballots with 62 percent of the total 2016 vote in. Even if turnout is up 15 percent over 2016, it seems likely that more than half of the total 2020 vote is in already and the dems are up 16 points with another week of early voting still go. There are also another 858k no party registration ballots that have been recieved, but nearly all polling shows that leaning towards democrats. Things seem to be looking very good in North Carolina.
Florida: Florida is up to 55 percent of 2016 total vote turnout. The news here isn’t as good as North Carolina. Dems are up 17 points over republicans on mail ballots, but Republicans are up 11 points over dems on early in-person voting. Altogether the Dems have a much narrower than NC lead here. The totals (not counting the no party affiliation ballots which I’ll get to in a second) are: 2,289,645 Dems to 1,899,530 Repubs. So the dems are up only about 10 points on the repubs out of the ballots with a party affiliation. There are also a million ballots from unaffiliated voters. If these swing towards the dems it seems to me like the dems are still in good shape in FL depending on how the rest of early voting goes. If they don’t, they’re in trouble.
Pennsylvania: PA is up to only about 24 percent of 2016 voting totals, but that is not surprising given that PA does not appear to have early in-person voting (at least not that has started yet). Of the mail in ballots returned so far, democrats lead 1,031,663 to 295,430 for a wafflestomping loltastic 55 point lead. There are also 125k no party affiliation ballots.
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If trumps wins from here, without a major fuck up from Biden
They cheated
Full stop
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I haven’t seen any new polls reported in the last 20 hours or so, and it feels like 2 weeks.
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Tell your dad that nowadays people are bombarded with more cataclysmic memes and commercials on a near daily basis.
No, but I like the idea that TikTok will eventually be recognized as a sovereign nation
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Has anyone looked at the poll crosstabs for unaffiliated voters in FL?
52/44 in favor of Biden among independents in the last poll posted on RCP and 538.
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_October21_U5GHV.pdf
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Hah I thought this was a response to @j8i3h289dn3x7 saying the results so far look like a bloodbath
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Gerrymandering, polling station fuckery, disenfranchisement… they are cheating. If they win, they succeeded.
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GOP files lawsuit to redo election due to act of God. SCOTUS says “Sure, why not?”
I agree. All the Trump maps I see all have a group of states that I doubt he will carry every state in that group.
But I don’t know anything about anything.
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To be fair, Trump AND Biden compared Trump to Abraham Lincoln, when it comes to helping black voters. I am sure it was quite the epiphany for black Americans.
Eh, the fact that this survey has Trump +4 when the actual popular vote in 2016 was Clinton +2 makes it seem really questionable to me.
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I think that’s from a Florida survey.
The actual FL result was much closer:
Trump 49.02%
Clinton 47.82%
That makes it look like Trump voters are oversampled [47.7% / (100%-4.4%) = 49.9%] and Clinton voters are underrepresented [43.5% / (100% - 4.4%) = 45.5%).
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Regarding 1. There are 2 people I know who I would’ve lost money betting on them not to vote that I know voted this week, both wouldn’t tell me so that’s 2 trump votes (they should know better), which makes me wonder how many more of that are out there? If rural turnout gains are on par with urban/suburban trump is very live.
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the fear that the electorate as a % is older/whiter due to less black/college age votes as a % than 16 is a real one so far imo.
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Trump will beat those numbers as a % in 20. The key is net votes.
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cuban floridans are going to vote R I’m pretty sure. I keep getting told by bettors that FL is pretty highly likely dem or 538’s model is right and I’m kinda thinking PI is more likely correct on FL. The early data to me just isn’t quite enough for dems for me but maybe GOP also cannibalized their ED vote with early voting somewhat. I just don’t get the confidence for D’s in FL at all.
Right now there’s some really good polls out there (MI) and not so much (AZ). NC is weird, early data looks good but NC is traditionally like FL, polls are always slight dem and then nope.
NV looks okay but GOP seems optimistic and that’s no good in a state that had been firing big dems lately.
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