Dems need to build up a huge lead in FL to overcome the election day red wave. They haven’t done that unless the independents are swinging hard towards them and more republicans are voting for biden then democrats for Trump. Possible I suppose, but doesn’t look great to me. There’s a reason FL is now back to red on predictit. That is in contrast to NC where dems are leading both the early vote and the mail in vote.
I still think that more registered R will vote Biden than vice versa.
Optimistic on the vote. Worried to Pessimistic on the count.
We’re in the fog of war now and the polls are going to suck (as in, be unreliable, not as in, look bad). Nobody is going to know what is going on for the next 10 days.
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i hate you
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I wouldn’t be super confident in citing predictit as a useful indicator
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The data is from here:
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
NC is at 57 percent of it’s 2016 vote and FL is at 50 percent.
In NC dems have built up a huge lead in both early voting and mail in voting that, if it continues for the next 7 days (big if), seems like it will be really difficult to overcome on election day.
In FL, the dems are actually losing the early voting (but are winning the absentees by enough that they have a lead overall still).
If we assume that turnout is going to be up roughly 15 percent over 2016 (which is what 538 is predicting), then NC is very close to having half it’s vote in already.
Fair enough. With that said, yesterday I pulled $400 out of Biden to win FL and threw it on Biden to win NY at 93 cents.
Biden’s national polling lead down to 9.2 in the 538 average this morning. Can’t tell what caused the move other than the IBD/TIPP poll (which actually moved better to Biden today at +6). Weird.
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I think polling would capture that. Seems to me that if polling misses it’s gotta be something like:
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A group of unlikely voters turns out in big numbers. Think working class white men without a college education in 2016, not that national polling was actually even wrong but it did catch us off guard in certain states.
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Some group has higher or lower turnout than expected. I’m not worried about Trump going from like 8% to 10% among black voters, that’s worth like 1% nationally. I’d be more worried about voter turnout among the 92% dropping by a big amount for some reason (like some last minute scurrilous attack on Joe).
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What worries me the most is that we basically have a ceiling on our margin among black voters. It’s tough to get much higher than 90-92% ever. But Trump can run up margins with uneducated white men, and continue shifting our politics around the axes to change the map. It’s like taking the Southern Strategy to the rust belt.
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If your theory applies, it would be Hispanic voters that scare me. Cuban and Venezuelan immigrants getting scared of “socialism.”
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While this may be a challenge for pollsters the likelihood that there are going to be so many of these people is a really good thing.
Sure, if you change nothing else. Give Biden MI and MN and it reverts back to like 80/20.
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This is a really good week to spend less time sweating polls and more time knocking doors, dropping lit, phone banking, text banking, and making sure all your friends and family who are voting blue have voted or have a voting plan.
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Do you like being sad?
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I’m not sure how his average works but maybe the IBD/TIPP polls before the shift toward Trump in that poll fell out because they’re too old?
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It sounds like he read something in Gateway Pundit, so I’ve consulted Nate Silver and he’s classified it as the mortal lock of 2020 that Mimosa likes being sad.
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My dad wants to know if this is a good concept, and if so is there any way to get it to someone who can make it happen in time. He wants to create a 2020 take on the 1964 “Daisy Girl” ad for President Johnson which he says changed the world of political advertising.
My dad’s envisioned scene - a young girl picking pedals off a daisy counting, mixing in some numbers in Spanish “one, two, three, quatro, five” (original ad she had numbers out of order). Her family is having a picnic. Then instead of a bomb explosion, have armed ICE agents storm the picnic and rip the crying child away from her parents arms. Then use the same or similar audio from the original ad “These are the stakes. To make a world in which all of Gods children can live or to go into the dark. We must either love each other, or we must die.”
Thoughts? Worth trying to pitch this to Lincoln Project or Meidas 10 days out? When my dad gets an idea he gets super excited so I told him I’d look into it.
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My cynical side says that not enough swing voters care about brown kids in cages to make this ad effective. Turning out the anti Trump vote should be based on provoking anger in voters about Trumps failures to help them.
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I’m actually not sad! Pretty happy. I do have a sense of dread, I guess, but this post didn’t come out of that or even sadness.
I wasn’t trying to fear-monger, I was just curious if anyone wanted to speculate on “unknown unknowns”.
It’s a beautiful day, just got back from a nice walk with the fam, and the 538 podcast said that district-specific polls might even be cause for more optimism.
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Seems fair and balanced
But it’s not about margins here as much as pure turn out, right? There’s a lot that can be down to improve turnout. Both in terms of GOTV and policy/legal changes.
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