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I can tell you from experience that Eamon is screenshotting that and sharing it on their slack and they are having a laugh
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Yeah, people who do that are spineless gits! 
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Are people allowed to vote in TikTok?
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New tweet from Rasmussen.
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https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1319653414289235968?s=19
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Not that I believe Gateway Pundit, but actually this morning I was thinking about what will likely be some of the surprises we discover if Trump somehow wins.
My best guess was that we’d be frustrated to find out that Republicans did a whole lot more early voting than we realized.
But my second thought was that the percentage of Trump voters among Black and Latino men will turn out to be shockingly (and depressingly) high. I guess whatever this tweet is saying could be looked back on as one kind of harbinger if that.
Barring actual major Comey style events to shift polls, what are some other “things we missed” we might be discussing if we’re forced to do post-game analysis on an actual Trump victory?
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We didn’t and we won’t. Only thing that gets trump there other than riggage is super high unlikely voter turnout from non-college whites on election day.
Sure, trump may improve a bit with some non-college minorities but that will be swamped by white women.
Republicans aren’t [edit, was “are”] doing more early vote than we realize. It’s transparent who votes in most states.
I think one area would be early voting data. Particularly because of the partisan nature of the pandemic it’s not clear what’s actually happening relative to final voter turnout and makeup. Maybe dems shifted way more to early voting than we thought and so the Election Day outcome is way more GOP than we think. Or the opposite.
I look at a lot of these “1/4 of the 2020 vote total has been cast” with suspicion because I don’t think we can reliably predict that vote total. And I think we’re in a very unusual election year for a lot of reasons.
I still think the data so far is a free roll or slightly positive. But not a huge advantage.
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Thats 56 percent female vote of the 56 percent of 2016 total who have voted so far. There’s still a lot more to come in and a red-shift E-day. Those early voting numbers are good, but I’d say Georgia is still at best like 55/45 for Joe.
This is true. Looking at the early voting data I think FL is gone for Biden TBH. On the other hand North Carolina looks really good.
Just a reminder that from here on out basically all likely voter polls are going to be absolute dogshit garbage because so many have early voted and the disparity between so many dems voting early and so many repubs voting on election day. This makes it far more likely that low likelihood dem voters who woudln’t normally be counted get counted (because they actually voted) without the corresponding thing happening on the repub side. We’re likely going to be flying blind about what is actually going on until Election Day.
I actually meant aren’t*. Sure, gop is doing ok in early in person but dems are swamping that with mail-in. FL is fine from what i can tell. Also, from what i know of NV is solid gop early voting being swamped by mail-in.
just tell me if it’s happening or waaf already
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This is what I mean though, we can’t know this. Maybe early voting republicans are overweight Biden because they’re more likely to care about COVID. Or maybe dems haven’t shifted that much to early voting as we think and Election Day turnout is going to be huge too. Or maybe the democrats are still made up of a bunch of old democrats that always vote GOP.
Any attempt to figure this out relies on a bunch of assumptions we don’t have reliable data to support.
not awesome, but fine.
On Tuesday morning Florida Democrats had cast 481,892 more votes than Republicans. By Friday morning the lead had dropped by 54,327 votes, to 427,520.
And Independents appear to be going more for Biden in polls I’ve seen.
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Care to break this down and maybe post some links? I can’t find anything other than articles saying we have no idea.
According to 538, Trump is 40% to win given he wins Florida. I’m not sure I actually buy this, since the rustbelt and Florida are not very correlated, and Biden’s lead in the rustbelt is 3-4 pts higher, but that is what the sims show.
(As an aside, I want to state right now that I have no faith Florida will ever do the right thing. They failed in 2018 when every other civilized state got it right. Fuck Florida.)
I agree about Florida, but man you can’t hope for a much better situation than Trump telling people that it’s ok because only old people die.