Right wing pollster, but McSally is within 5 in polls now. No longer a lol mcsally blowout. sad.
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I hear you. We got extremely lucky that most of the risk can be eliminated by simply wearing a mask. Not all risk, but more than acceptable for most to vote this idiot out.
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Which polls? RCP average is 5.6 but that’s a direct result of the outlier McSally +3 and a Rasmussen Kelly +2 being the two most recent polls.
I was looking at 538 here–I don’t know what a basswood research is (they also have sally ahead) but this week morning consult was kelly +4/trump +1 and some other +6’s kelly wasn’t at 50.
Gotcha. I didn’t check 538. It’s strange that they don’t each report the same polls.
RCP won’t post stuff like surveymonkey or adjust like 538 does but they do keep most of the blatant R polls but they also keep quinnpiac so I don’t quite know what they’re doing.
Somehow RCP has been okay averaging them, I guess having too far left/right kinda balances out. Or they really only count the last X, which as the election gets closer usually get more accurate. 538 will put up polls from eons ago too often as added today so you gotta check the poll dates. I don’t know how much weight 538 uses on old polls but they seem to leave them in there where I wouldn’t.
Just caught a random commercial break and it was 4 straight political commercials. Biden, Congressional candidate, PA voting info, Congressional candidate. Makes me wonder if there is any noticeable drop in business in the weeks leading up to the election for the companies that normally have all these advertising slots.
my favorite are the ones where you get amy kennedy and Jeff Van Drew attack ads back to back
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She’s a RaDiCaL socialist!!!
I retract permission to pay attention to Wasserman at Redistrict. Feels like he’s going for some sensationalism about the early/mail vote for Ds but hedging saying the R e-day turnout will be massive. Like ok, none of that is useful to infer anything so why do I keep clicking on your shit.
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Kind of. Yes. It’s more that big retail brands will plan around these times. Very few brands will be always on. So they just put their campaigns at different times of the year.
Likewise. Non Christmas brands like mine (electricity and gas) avoid December.
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Wasserman is great for information and terrible at punditry. He’s basically Nate with way more experience and knowledge of individual districts/counties/etc.
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We have ticked back to 87/13 on 538.
What happened? Polls been looking the same right? Random shit polls? Or AZ tightening to a flip?
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By all reason we should have been looking at
GE
Trump 46%
Biden 52%
And then crow if Biden edged up to 53%.
Instead we are doomsayers because he dropped from 88% to 87%.
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Maybe AZ did it, that would make sense.
In Georgia 56 percent of the 2016 total turnout have already voted. They don’t report party, but they do report demographics. This seems important:
Men: 43 percent
Women: 56 percent
Not Reported: 1 percent;
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