Biden with a video out addressing Rudy/laptopgate? Haven’t watched it, but I wonder if addressing it is the correct strategy. Almost legitimizes the BS, but he was no doubt going to get pressed on it during the debate, so I suppose it’s good to have the talking points down.
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isn’t gonna have a choice when trump repeats it at the debate every 2 minutes and every fox headline is BIDEN CAUGHT WITH whatever and 50 million people are like I CAN"T VOTE BIDEN NOW
Some have already modeled the next 10 years or so and some of the south states flip and some of the north states flip. Dems seem to be flipping at a better rate tho.
THANKS OBAMA
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I dont think it would be smart to project this election onto any future ones. An AOC-Romney electoral map is going to look a lot different than a Biden-Trump one. But if anything i would be encouraged, not worried. A blue FL gives us 3 of the 4 largest states, and FL pop is growing faster than the rust belt states are. A blue GA would be very, very encouraging.
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It’s the difference between an underdog boxer winning and an underdog baseball team winning. If a 10-1 dog in a baseball game wins and the teams play again under identical circumstances, the true odds won’t change very much if there were comprehensive statistics on how good the players are going into the first game. It’s just that a 10% underdog won, it’s just a dice roll.
But in boxing if the underdog wins then it’s far more likely that the oddsmakers misinterpreted how good the boxers were relative to each other. So on a rematch the odds will change dramatically. Elections are much more like this, the uncertainty isn’t in any sort of sampling error. The uncertainty is in how representative of the voting population the sample is, and that’s not random. It’s just unknown.
(The example of these two types of uncertainty is stolen from Sklansky’s latest book)
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Very suspicious of this one. Would need the WI/MI/AZ trifecta (or something else).
https://twitter.com/maxbrooksauthor/status/1318930412610211841
Today a lot of people learned that Max Brooks is Mel Brooks’s son.
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AZ is barely if at all correlated with PA/FL. MI though yeah that’d be hard. TX is still not impossible, there’s tons of votes already in.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318793556174213120
How did THIS poll get missed in here I don’t see a meme on it
and how did this result happen in the first place? lmao
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So Trump’s closing argument is going to be him rambling crazy grandpa conspiracy nonsense about Hunters laptop at the debate followed by him losing his shit in a 60 Minutes interview, I lien how this is going.
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Probably because LOL Survey Monkey.
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Random thought in regards to early voters “freeroll” mentioned here.
One of the most infamous election day ‘incidents’ in Israel was Netanyahu texting out “the Arabs are swarming to the polls” on election day to fire up motivation in his racist base.
If in 2016 we had a significant early vote lead for Trump, don’t you think it would have gotten more Democrats to the polls on election day?
Not sure if this mind set works the same in America.
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GOP turnout is always insanely high vs Democratic turnout. That’s the whole point of their strategy of serving donors and pandering to shitty white people with those same donors money. Those shitty white people are extremely consistent voters.
Trump probably got every vote he could realistically get in 2016, and this time won’t be different. What’s different is how energized our base (who are not consistent voters at all) is.
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I mean is fox news reporting the big democratic advantage in early voting? Because it’s liberal media nonsense to them if not.
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Quite a few Dem senators are running ahead of Biden in red states, just saying…
I thought this was just lol mcsally (and some dems who aren’t winning in KY/SC/etc)
https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1318900987998994433
I’m SHOCKED
he put in 8k more than I thought
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That Xanax has kicked in.
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