It’s because Ohio (if I’m reading things properly ITT) counts faster than a lot of the other Midwest states. If Biden actually does ship Ohio, it makes a Trump win very unlikely.
Knowing that Trump is done for by Wednesday morning reduces the GOP rationale for fuckery in other states.
This doesn’t sound right to me. Are you saying run it with the same 8 left over and over? If so then it’s only the first time you don’t have that info, after that I can pretty much tell you how it’s going to break in the long run. If it’s a different 8 randomly picked every time then the 87/13 holds doesn’t it?
This. I’d even say north of 300 is needed to feel comfortable. It’s a mortal lock that any remotely close result, and probably plenty of not close results, will be aggressively fought in the Trump friendly courts and public opinion with Trump claiming victory. Biden needs to be ahead on Nov 3rd and end up with like 350+ for me to actually feel good about things.
Yes, not sure what you are saying that contradicts mine. Once we see how things break on 11/3, we would be able to dramatically adjust our probabilities if we had the ability to run 11/3 again.
Yep I see now. Wasn’t really reading you correctly so not contradicting. All good.
You forgot Texas.
This is probably the correct analysis (maybe not Arizona?).
NC and Florida always count quickly, so those are going to be the key states to watch IMO.
If NC goes Biden then that’s game over for Trump. 538 gives Biden a 99 percent chance of winning if he takes NC. Even if trump takes FL and Ohio in that scenario 538 still gives Biden an 85 percent chance.
Actually only Biden +2.5!
Since yesterday, we’ve had some major movements in the IBD universe:
I guess if you love volatility, looking at the daily IBD poll results is a caffeine-free way to wake yourself up in the morning.
PennSylvania is the state where the Repubes control the legislature and they will just give the electoral votes to Trump because fuck you that’s why right?
True, although I’m still sticking Texas in my bucket of States that I have no hope for and if any of them are declared Biden we’ll be in complete blowout scenario.
Yeah that’s a 15% chance with no fuckery. Trust me we will all be sweating big time if it goes OH FL Trump NC Biden at like 11pm.
Please vote Biden.
Its baked in conventional wisdom at this point that Ohio is a swing state.
Is this based off the AZ +3 and PA +6 polls yesterday?
So we have roughly 1/3 of the total 2016 ballots already cast? That can’t be anything but an amazing sign with polls starting to tighten, right?
Well, about 1/4 of expected 2020, though there’s no sign that polls are starting to tighten.
It’s definitely a solid sign though.
