do you have something more rigorous than this or what are you considering “population of those cities”? Tennessee definitely doesn’t follow this rule (Memphis+Nashville alone is about 50% of the state population, if you add Chattanooga, Jackson and Knoxville MSAs you’re looking at almost 70% and this state is extremely red).
As we approach election day, 100% of Trump’s chances of winning are attributed to fundamental misunderstanding about turnout and the composition of the electorate. Prior to election day, some diminishing portion of Trump’s chances are due to random events that could help him.
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What about the Tri-Cities? That’s another ~500k!
If the early vote were +20 Biden in a +0 environment, cause dems do more early voting, it’s like +26 in a +7 environment, so Trump has to make up ground among the unvoted, requiring a different environment.
Assume 50% had voted in a +7 likely voter environment, then Trump would need +14.1 from the other 50% to win, which would require a different environment. If 90% had voted in a +7 environment then Trump would need like +80 for the remaining 10%.
Tired and this isn’t a great explantation but pretty sure it checks out.
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Texas up to 60 percent of total 2016 turnout with 13 days to go. There is a possibility that Texas hits 100 percent of 2016 turnout before Election Day. I still think Texas could be in play.
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If Biden wins TX he’s > 99% with a median 417 electoral votes.
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Florida up to 38 percent of 2016 turnout. Dems have a 500k vote advantage out of 3.7 million cast and there are also 700k no party affiliation ballots.
I entered this map into the 538 tool and got 91% Biden 7% Trump. Assuming the other 2% is some combo of rounding and ties.
Hah, I’m also tired so I think I agree with this.
I think what I was saying is that lets say polls accurately describe a +7 Biden environment during early voting. But then polls accurately show a major shift to Trump +1. That may still be enough for Trump to win. Because the voters that shifted were the ones that hadn’t voted. This is as opposed to saying that Trump would need polls to shift to +7 Trump to counteract the early voting done in the +7 Biden environment.
Edit: So to be clear, my point only stands when we can say that the early voters are significantly over represented by the people that won’t ever change their minds. If we’re in an environment where 50-90% of eventual turn out happened in the +7 Biden environment obviously that group of people contains some people that would have switched and so Trump would need a bigger swing in the environment.
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1318904288173842432?s=19
(love seeing tx and fl blue, but the color is just vote count and unrelated to candidate)
Chalk one up for an actually pretty good poker analogy. Might have included judicial.
Looking at the States to watch on election night it feels like if any of these are called for Biden we can relax:
- Ohio
- Florida
- Georgia
- North Carolina
- Arizona
- Pennsylvania
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I think fl, oh, and nc are fast counters. PA is allowing mail in up to 3 days past election and i don’t think count any mail in early. Most of the analysts I’ve seen think a winner will be clear by 11pm est. Like if Biden wins a couple of FL counties then he likely wins.
This is why I say all the early voting is a freeroll. It locks in Biden voters, some percentage of whom would have either switched or not made it to the polls by election day.
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If FL and OH go trump and NC goes Biden we won’t know the winner for a long time. If they’re all trump its 60/40 trump to win i.e. 100%.
Ohio is irrelevant to this election and I have no idea why people keep talking about it.
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True, but IF NC goes for Biden then its pretty unlikely that both Ohio and Florida go for Trump.
Yes, in a +0 vs +7 environment some of the early votes for Biden would have been Trump votes, and he needs to make them up at > +0 to win.
(of course polling error with n=500 and likely voter screening error mean the +7 is really like +2 to +12.)
I’m looking for the election night signs that I can breathe easier. If Ohio is called, I’ll breathe pretty easily. Particularly because I think a Biden win of 300+ is really necessary to relax.