Different model though. My understanding is this model is a lot more conservative than that one. HRC never had this lead in the polls. Not even close. Biden is up to +9.8. That’s about 3 points higher than the highest average Clinton ever had int he 538 average.
2 Likes
I think we should all prepare ourselves for the likelihood that at some point in the next week we’re going to see a shift in this race. The polling average is going to move enough that were not going to be seeing a lot of Biden +10, and we’re probably going to see a:
Biden +20
15 Likes
cuuuuuussse with the Shyamalan level twist A+
5 Likes
I think the polling average is going to hit like +16 and the MOE will give us results from like +12 to +20. We’re going to see some shit. Do not adjust the color on your TV when that map comes up, Texas is supposed to be gray and, yes, Iowa is actually supposed to be blue.
Ok maybe not Iowa. FL or NC? AZ? Something. Iowa probably stays gray.
I’m horrified that Trump might, in the process of some spectacular normally career ending fuckup, land face first in a viable way to get out of all of this. At the same time I can’t actually imagine what that viable way is. He’s extremely close to drawing dead from what I can see.
At the same time I’m really looking forward to someone else having the nuclear codes, because then I will feel actually safe.
1 Like
The viable way out is to wind up back in the hospital and then resign. Not that he would do that. He might even opt to be sworn in for his second term if he binks the election. He’ll still be on the ballot regardless of whether he resigns.
Just put me in a medically induced coma from now until inauguration so I dont gotta sweat this.
Its 2020 and with the way trump runs shit like Joe getting struck by lightening is live.
5 Likes
It’s legit time to put Joe in the basement lol…
3 Likes
Seriously. Jokes about prevent defense aside we are 3+ touchdowns ahead here. Let’s grind out the clock.
I do think we’re drawing live to Trump blowing past Reagan/Mondale Popular vote margins and ending up in Nixon/McGovern or Johnson/Goldwater margins. I also think we’re drawing live to Trump winning. The tails on this election are unbelievable.
3 Likes
We should put Joe in the basement and when Trump attacks him for it, Joe should say if Trump can string three days together without fucking up he’ll come out. See you on 1/20.
1 Like
On October 8, 2016, Clinton was up 5.8 points against Trump in the 538 tracker. Biden is up 9.8. More important at no point EVER was Clinton above 50 percent in projected popular vote. In the 538 popular vote model now, Biden has NEVER been below 52 percent.
5 Likes
I’m not going to lie after 4 years of WAAF I’m just giddy with every other post being Vince
6 Likes
And if you think this shit is crazy…
3 Likes
Also, it won’t be over in 26 days.
I mean, he is on the airwaves nationally? I see Biden ads during football games in California, and it’s not like I’m in some bumblefuck town on the AZ or NV border.
The more I think about the transition the more I think it’ll be a lot more peaceful than you’d think. For starters I suspect that standing up to Trump as a federal employee will be basically derisked (by the time the appeals process on anything he does could finish it’ll be rescinded by the Biden admin, you might be getting promoted)… which will basically stop him from doing anything too unfortunate. He’s going to push every single button and find the limits of what he can actually do, like always.
1 Like
With this polling there’s a very good chance the election is called on Election Night.
2 Likes
The news will be chaotic though, at best.