I guess that’s true. But that requires you to be pretty accurate in what the other players are really doing in situations. Maybe that’s feasible but starting with GTO and then deviating is probably safer. And there’s a big difference between “I’m adjusting my preflop raise bigger because folks are calling too much” and “I’m check folding all of my kings on this river spot”. The latter can’t really be exploited without you knowing it, and if it is it’s no big deal. If you’re leaving yourself open to being bluffed on the river that is a big deal and could cost you a lot. So it makes sense to make most of your adjustments on early streets and then play more GTO on later streets.
You genuinely won’t see many river bluffs (especially ones that make sense) at $1/2 or $150 tournaments though.
I hate this option. If I’m betting it’s to rep a bluff. A blocking bet both makes it clear that you do actually have something you can show down and invites a bluff raise - the latter is unlikely, but a disaster if it happens. Mostly I don’t want to make it obvious that I don’t have a bluff.
H characterised V as “very capable” and “competent thinking player” and said he sits at up to 5/10.
You see the occasional missed draw stab. But that’s it. And I want a read the person looks like they actually came to play poker vs. call and make hands - which is the standard player.
My splits are probably something weird like:
20%: bet $50 with the intention of calling a raise unless a live read dictates otherwise
20%: overbet the pot, $200ish. Polarizes you between the nuts and air, even though you have neither. If he is a thinking player it makes it a tough decision on him because he has no full houses in his range and not a ton of flushes.
60%: check with the intention of calling most bets. This is obviously the “standard” option and for good reason. Anything else is kind of FPS and you won’t even lose much if you fold “bad” rivers vs the lone competent player oop.
Well kind of the idea is that you do want to make it obvious you have something in order to prevent getting bluffed, compared to checking where our hand looks weaker and our opponent can set bet-size. The main danger of blocking bets is our opponent bluff-shoving over-top, so if we’re conceding that that’s unlikely there’s no real downside. That said I do prefer a river check.
Thanks for making me want to play and also realize how garbage I am at poker! Might go this weekend when I’m up in Phoenix, there’s apparently a deep stack tournament at one of the casinos on Friday and Saturday nights.
Great discussion. Didn’t think this hand would generate so much. Thanks all.
Not sure how to do spoilers here but:
I checked river ($158 in the pot).
V immediately grabbed 3 green chips (75) and threw them in. It just felt like a stab with how quick he acted. I called and tabled my hand. He threw his cards into the muck so I’m not sure what he ended up having. I suppose I could have waited and had him show first but I was acting on instinct and just flipped my cards after throwing a chip in for the call right away. I posted this because I didn’t take time to think through my river call and wanted thoughts.
you see some though
I never show first for exactly this reason. I just say call and look at them. If he turns over KJ your read on solid player is way off and now you have a ton of information.
I’d say your read on solid player is probably off anyway because there were almost no draws that missed. Seems likely he thought he was value betting. How did he react when you called - did he look closely at your hand or did he pretty much just give it a glance then muck?
I doubt anyone here would advocate check/fold for $75 w/o a soul read.
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All the straight draws missed. I’d imagine a hand like JT would be played this way.
Pet hate of mine when people don’t just show their cards even though they’re supposed to show first and sit there hoping you’ll show yours. It’s basically time wasting trying to angle shoot and annoys hell out of me. I never let people get away with it and have a go at them about it if I see them do it regularly.
He had JT the majority of the time.
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I dunno. There’s 4 combos of JTs and a ton of combos of other weird random crap. If he’s calling 6BB UTG raises pre from UTG+1 with JTo - then he could have about anything here. I think it’s also likely hero’s read of solid player is a bit off. From my few sessions - plenty of crappy players still show up at 5/10.
If we’re that sure that villain is never taking himself to value town with a crappier K or JJ, then calling AK on the river is the same as calling TT. So what hand is a competent villain holding JTs really trying to push us off of? Do we bet the turn with AQ or a low PP? Do we raise 6BB pre with a low PP? Is open-limping common at this game?
Given the positions you shouldn’t be flatting 6BB with basically anything, but it happened, so I’m taking it as read that he calls too loose preflop. People flatting with any two Broadway cards is pretty common at LLSNL. I’m not assuming from H’s read that he’s necessarily a winning player, but that he is capable of moves, thinks about what we might have, has some idea how the game works.
Whatever probability you want to assign to him having flatted JTo, it’s a lot less probable imo that he flatted the flop with random overcards with two players left to act behind him and that these overcards happened to include one of the two Kings left in the deck. It’s also not really any less bad to flat like KJo pre there rather than JTo. He will have a king some % of the time, I could definitely see him taking one off if he had a BDFD for example.
I’m betting my entire range on that turn card like I said, so there’s plenty in my range he can target, AJ and AQ for starters. I’m also not folding anything that can beat JT on this river but he doesn’t know that.
Yeah I agree JT is likely. I just felt like “most of the time” was a little strong w/o a much stronger read on the exact type of player this guy is.
Maybe 1/2 plays a lot different, but I’ve seen so much insane crap at $150 tourneys that I gave up trying to put villains on narrow ranges like that. I see river bets all the time that I have no idea if it was for value or a bluff. I think the guy just thinks - I got checked to, I have a piece, I bet. You see 2nd pair call down 3rd pair a lot (and vice versa when they show). Maybe someone knows what they’re doing there but it’s hard to tell.
Pretty funny hand - blind vs. blind:
SB raises, BB calls
Flop J73 rainbow
SB checks, BB bets, SB instacalls
Turn 9
SB checks, BB bets, SB instacalls
River 2
SB checks, BB bets close to pot, SB instacalls
BB turns over A2, SB flips up his AQ in disgust
I think they may have had some history. I have no idea if BB was betting for value.
Yeah maybe I wasn’t as specific as I should have been. I don’t know if he is a winning long term player but IME with V, he’s not your standard OMC and could make plays, thought about decisions. For example, for the first hour he sat two to my right. To my immediate right, his immediate left, was a very solid younger Asian guy who was on a first name basis with half the dealers who’s not someone you wanted to have position on you. When a spot opened up to our left he jumped at it.
And yeah, I should have waited to see what he held after I called but I only play a handful of times a year now and just flipped my hand up. JT seems like a reasonable hand for him to have.
Did you notice how closely he looked at your cards? Or did he seem like he was mucking all the way? I guess given your read it’s pretty unlikely he took himself to value town.
Doubt anyone in the area is reading this but I’m planning on going to Ft McDowell casino in Phoenix tomorrow for the Saturday night deepstack tournament. @feedthabeast maybe?
I wish! I can’t leave the lady and baby home for that long. Gl gl.