I snap shove preflop against this though he could have some random pair and snap it off anyway. It’s his 2nd hand at a low stakes table usually means a dumb fish is doing something dumb.
GII pre imo
btw don’t fold flop to that small of a bet given your opponent has to have a set or AA for you not getting price–TT+ AKo+ and you’re still 33% and that’s a nit range. JJ+ is better.
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Downvote for folding to that small bet, but two upvotes for the GTO-London cabbie line
So for those of you who think call flop, then what on a blank turn? Am I lead-shoving a spade turn?
I bet flop all day
Seems fishy. Why wouldn’t I go for the CR if I have anything?
Against the right player, x/c flop, lead turn can be a powerful line that has more fold equity than x/r flop.
ding ding ding ding
Can’t shove pre fast enough against this guy.
If you shove and this unhappy state of affairs indeed comes to pass, you’re a 60/40 dog and will lose about $55 in equity, vs folding and losing $30, or vs calling and doing [unclear] on the flop, which amounts to a slower and more painful way to lose at least $30. If you have AK and someone else gets dealt AA or KK you’re going to lose money; you can’t try to dodge every cooler against a player with some idea what they’re doing. (You can definitely dodge every cooler vs OMCs).
- OMC = Old Man with Coffee, 2+2 lingo for old nits sitting there nursing a buyin so they don’t have to go home.
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Another interesting hand from that 1/3 session. One of the girls (of the group of 5 poker friends) raised UTG to $15, I called with JJ in MP.
If it’s one of the pro dudes I might(?) 3-bet. But I put her range pretty strong and to be honest I was really only trying to beat the pasty poker guys. The girls were a lot of fun and it got real sad when they lost a big pot (yes I am aware that’s a strategy - if I was playing for a living I would play very different). Not that I wouldn’t take their money but I wasn’t going out of my way. More callers - 6 ended up seeing the flop.
Flop QQ4 rainbow. It checks to the other pasty poker pro guy, who bets $50 into the $80 pot from the button. He has about $500 and I have him covered. I call, everyone else folds.
Turn 8. I check. He bets $40 into the $180 pot. I call.
River J. I check, he checks behind and says “Do you have a queen?”. I show first (is that correct?) he mucks.
I really didn’t see many hands that don’t bet that river. I figured a Q a set, or a bluff keep firing. But he might have just given up up on a bluff. In any case if he’s bluffing I get no value out of leading.
I asked if he had me until the river and he says yes - which I guess puts him on AA/KK if he’s telling the truth. I guess that makes sense as the tiny turn bet was thin value. I could see him not reraising pre - since the 3 guys were kind of soft playing the 2 girls they were friends with.
I still think the river check was best since I’m eyeing his whole stack. Although it would suck if he had Q4 or Q8. Q4 he probably folds pre. Q8s maybe. They weren’t playing loose pre. So yeah I’ve got the effective nuts.
Or maybe I bet like 1.5 pot on river and hope he looks me up.
He’s supposed to show first technically but you don’t need to see his cards–you knew he had some weak ass check the river shit when he bet 40 into 180 on the turn.
It’s hard to fire 3x as a bluff on QQ48, I mean what can you have but something? Though the J isn’t a bad one to try it given his line as it’s an over to TT/99/77 but that’s also his not bluffing holding.
He seems weak type of player that is very unlikely calling if you fire river but sometimes you never know when you get hero’d with these people.
I don’t believe AA/KK but I guess who knows with live donks. You’d think he’d bet small on river again with that. I guess he was thinking “oh no 99 for sure folds now”.
A hand like Q7s where he made a loose call OTB in a multi-way pot then decided you weren’t calling the river unless he was beat seems more likely than AA/KK.
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In case it wasn’t clear - this was one of the kids who were playing at the table because their friends were there and by all indication normally play a lot higher. He wasn’t playing insane or screwing around though. But I assumed he is good.
Later he got into a huge hand with his buddy - the other pasty shutin guy. He shoved pot on river for $200 or something - putting his buddy all in. Buddy called with 99 on an AT7xx board and was good.
Yeah I’m never going to have a worse Q there - makes sense.
At the end of the night another one of their poker pro buddies sat down and I left soon after - leaving them with one guy who played maybe 1 hand an hour to try to take money from. Ha.
Oh yeah - earlier in the night a different dude came over the top of my $50 PSB on the river, making it $150. Unlucky for him I had the 2nd nut flush (he had the ace blocker). That NEVER happens at 1/3 in LA. Ever.
I figured I was beat and kind of nit rolled the guy while I thought about it for a second lol. It was a good bet. I probably would have folded a lot of my range. He just happened to hit the absolute top.
Although I guess I’m rarely potting the river with something I’ll fold to $100 more. Maybe that’s a leak.
I know it’s not more profitable, but poker is a lot more fun when people actually bluff. My $150 tourneys are just splashy preflop zombies who have it 99% of the time when they bet into you postflop, and happily call off half their stack with middle pair. The only strategy I’m talented enough to win with vs. them is play good cards and value bet the shit of them when you hit. Kinda boring. Oh yeah and exploit them by folding very strong hands when they wake up and lead or raise the river. So fun!
Maybe that’s the secret. I need to learn to enjoy it when I exploit someone by folding.
Actually I take it back. There’s nothing more fun than having a decent stack against these guys when it gets down to like double whatever # of players that make the money, and they instantly go from way too loose to way too tight. That’s where just knowing basic ICM and how to own the bubble is a massive massive edge over the field. I’ve just been running so bad in tourneys lately I’ve forgotten that feeling.
Variance in MTTs is monstrous and you will definitely go through periods of building a stack, building a stack then losing it on a flip or some ridiculous cooler like 20 tourneys in a row, to me there’s nothing less fun than that. On the JJ hand I assume the guy had a bad queen, nothing else makes sense. He’d probably have folded it to a turn checkraise. I wouldn’t try it in that spot, but you can sometimes own guys like that by just making a bluff that a typical low stakes chud is completely incapable of making.
The secret to good poker is that it is usually boring.
If you want to bluff these players, it usually works better on the river. The problem is that you often need to have a decent hand to make it to the river. In a cash game, you can float with the intention of taking a pot away on a scary card. In a tournament, a lot of times, your stack isn’t deep enough to pull that off.
At this level of tournament, I’ve become convinced that a good player can have such a great edge over the field that surviving is more important than building a big stack. It’s just really boring to go through a tournament hanging out mostly in the 15-20bb zone, playing smallball to maintain your stack without going broke. In the past, I’ve had a tendency to say screw it, I’ll either double up or go play cash. This past year, I’ve tried harder to be more patient with good results. And I am someone who has a reputation as a very patient cash game grinder.
Yeah I made a bluff layer on a Q high board where John bet $25, one of the girls called, and I made it $100. John snapfolded, girl waited a bit then folded, I showed air - to much mirth and merriment. There was a lot of showing plus it was my only bluff. John said he folded a Q.