And then the article itself just describes the ongoing PR campaign against him. I was hoping based on the tweet that there were sources indicating that the possibility has actually soured, but as far as I can tell thereās nothing of the type in the article.
I donāt think itās about people who would directly flip because of the Gaza stance. Agreed there arenāt enough people for that to matter.
Iām more worried about it becoming A Thing that causes a disturbance in the vibes. I could definitely see it becoming a distraction. Same for the sexual harassment story.
Shapiro actually seems pretty good to me otherwise, but thereās only 95 days to the election. If any of that time is spent on news cycles about Gaza or sexual harassment, thatās not good imo.
This is kind of the crux of it. Do you think Harris is making a mistake concluding (if she has) that picking Shapiro will help her win Pennsylvania, or do you think she should pick someone else even if Shapiro is the best bet to win Pennsylvania?
Even if youāre picking the VP solely based on EV of winning, I donāt think itās at all clear that Shapiro is the right pick.
Letās say he does give you a 0.5% to 2% boost in PA. Thatās important, sure. But Pennsylvania is by no means guaranteed to be the tipping point state. In fact I thought I saw somewhere that it was only like a 35% chance? May be misremembering.
But yeah, for example Walz might be an improvement on Shapiro by like 0.5% or more in both Michigan and Wisconsin. Lots of variables and possible paths.
Win probability shouldnāt be the only consideration, but if we assume that it is, yea I think itās generally a mistake to try to appease centrists and never Trumpers at the expense of leftists, and I view choosing Shapiro as an example of that mistake. I donāt know enough about Pennsylvania to know whether he materially improves the chances of winning PA but canāt imagine a small percent increase there outweighs turning people off.
I do find it odd that weāve reached a point where weāre getting reporting that Pritzker has reached the formal interview stage and has not been getting talked about even a little bit.
From this article talking about Beshear being a finalist being interviewed, his name is thrown in.
The others who have qualified for interviews with Harrisā team include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
I saw it in another article earlier too. If his name is at all serious in the convo, I would think there would be some sort of effort at floating more of a trial balloon to see what reaction he gets.
Yes Iām using a bit of hyperbole, but I also think this is the kind of story that could make a dent in someoneās chances. I donāt like seeing that the woman who brought forward the allegations lost her job and revived a payout, though it does appear she still supports Shapiro.
I agree that it hurts his chances as well as hurts his strength as a running mate if she goes ahead anyway, and for that matter my brutally uneducated gut feeling is that heās quite overvalued at 71 on PI. But if we were getting a drumroll announcement of the person right now, I wouldnāt be able to help but think thatās still the most likely name Iād hear at the end of it.
also, @RiskyFlush and anyone else who might be interested, weāre doing the zoom call thing this evening, feel free to join us and see some of the joy and belonging that drove the campaign in 2020 and the reason weāre ready to be warriors for Kamala (whoever she picks)
For those who donāt know the pictures, itās Malcom Kenyatta (PA state rep), Steve Adler, former mayor of Austin, FL state Rep Christine Hunchofsky (former mayor of Parkland, FL when the shooting happened), Will Rollins (Dem candidate for CA-41), Christopher Caboldon, former mayor of West Sacramento and now running for CA state senate, and Rep Pat Ryan, from a NY swing district.
Itāll also be streaming on Youtube, Iāll post that as soon as I get it