Oh, man, we are definitely living in a timeline where the estate of Jeffrey Epstein wins a wrongful death lawsuit against the prison system…
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That’s a ridiculous and pointless way of looking at anything though. Like without any priors whatsoever it would be 50/50 whether Epstein’s native language was English or Lithuanian. In fact, it would be equiprobable that Epstein was a human being, a kitchen appliance, or a neutron star. So what?
What he laid out over multiple posts is the correct method for evaluating competing hypotheses using Bayesian reasoning. Maybe that seems trivial to you, but it illustrates the key difference from the clovis model of logic that, as far as I can tell, is more like only evaluating evidence that may be admissible in court.
It’s reasonable to assume that things don’t exist if there’s nothing to suggest they do, since the vast majority of things which can be imagined don’t exist. (A teapot orbiting Jupiter is the usual example).
This is evidence of absence. He already pointed that out and is why jmakin is wrong about the negation claim. And these burden of proof shifts using negation aren’t real things, as has been pointed out by numerous authors in philosophy of science.
This is just wrong because there isn’t any reference to the particulars of the Epstein case here. In the case of a random person dying in jail, it’s ridiculous to suggest that starting from the assumption that there was no conspiracy is a bad starting point. The point in the Epstein case is that there’s much to suggest that a conspiracy is a good possibility. The point is not that it’s bad to start from reasonable priors.
That isn’t his claim at all and he explained it (again) in the very next paragraph–it’s specifically about the Epstein case and how the priors for conspiracy are strong. You guys are interpreting this like he’s saying all explanations for everything are equally plausible until proven otherwise, which he’s not.
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LOL even if you don’t think you’re part of the conspiracy YOU’RE PART OF THE CONSPIRACY!
Game over, no way this can’t be a conspiracy now that we’ve been shown that just knowing people in power want something to happen will compel subordinates to break the law to make their betters happy! So much for free will…
I think you do. At least, that’s what I take people to mean when they use a construction like “part of the conspiracy”. I think you have a fair point about, let’s call it unwitting co-operation, but “the conspiracy” is the plan. You’re talking about the execution of the plan.
If there’s a prosecutor who aggressively pursues minor drug crimes because that’s what their boss’s office policy is, we can’t blame them because what were they supposed to do?
At the same time it’s crystal clear that subordinates are expected to stand up to any conspiracy type office policies and it’s ridiculous to think they would, for example, cut an investigation short because their boss expects them to.
I generally like your posting, but jesus try reading what I actually wrote. I didn’t say anything remotely close to, “You can’t prove it doesn’t exist, therefore it exists QED.”
Maybe you thought some of my obvious remarks were supposed to have a bigger point, but they weren’t. I was only shooting down the strawman-in-flesh that was Clovis’ posting ITT.
I don’t really care Johnny, I did my time in the 9/11 threads I’m not doing that again. Your post made it sound like the statement “there is no conspiracy” is unfalsifiable because people are doing conspiracy without knowing they are, so I mocked it and am moving on. I hope this nonsense doesn’t turn into the gateway conspiracy for anyone on the forum and turn them into another luckbox.
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Didn’t pretty much exactly this happen earlier with this pervs case?
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For the pro-conspiracy crowd, how are we on the possibility that something like this happened without the involvement of Trump or any powerful people who may have been Epstein clients?
Easily in there.
Yes that’s my point. Sorry sometimes even I can’t tell when I’m being sarcastic
Lo fucking L
I’m still awaiting the release of a note on fading paper signed “Epstein’s mother.”
So to recap, we now have the highest-value prisoner in the facility being taken off suicide watch days after allegedly trying to kill himself, then placed in a cell with no camera, no cellmate, and two malfunctioning cameras outside the cell, then left without the mandatory half-hour checks for a period of at least 6 hours, after which the check records were falsified. I’m sure this is the end of the revelations though and we won’t discover any more incredibly shady information.
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One other thing. A lot of insinuations were thrown around about the alleged incompetence of the guard staff. I’m no huge fan of jail guards, but I have known a few, in fact I have a cousin who is one along with his wife. And they both appear very competent to me. And all the insinuations just seemed overly elitist and condescending with no other evidence.
So I thought I’d take a look at the competency level of medical examiners and coroners: Coroners Don't Need Degrees To Determine Death : NPR
It appears that coroners and medical examiners are likewise overworked and under-qualified in many cases. Many are not board-certified, others have no degrees, and others are just on the take.
Sorry, it was probably because I haven’t been following the thread closely enough.
This is not however true of the NYC Chief Medical Examiner, who is extremely qualified:
Dr. Barbara Sampson was appointed Acting Chief Medical Examiner of the City of New York in 2013. Sampson joined the OCME as a Fellow in Forensic Pathology in 1998. From 2000 to 2005, Dr. Sampson served the office as a City Medical Examiner II and Cardiovascular Pathology Consultant. In 2005, she was promoted to First Deputy Chief Medical Examiner.
Dr. Sampson is the recipient of the Young Investigator Award from the Society of Cardiovascular Pathology and the E.R. Squibb and Sons Senior Thesis Prize for Contribution to Scientific Research, among other awards. She is Vice President of the Society of Cardiovascular Pathology, and a member of the National Association of Medical Examiners, the United States and Canadian Academy of Pathology, and the American Medical Association.
Sampson earned her Bachelor’s degree at Princeton and obtained a Ph.D. in Molecular Biology at Rockefeller University. She earned her degree in medicine at Cornell University Medical College, followed by a residency at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston. Dr. Sampson has authored 29 articles and 4 book chapters in the fields of microbiology and pathology.
I actually read many articles on the competency level and the accuracy of various medical examiners. Even with qualifications many medical examiners Miss various things like bullets in the back of the head bullets in the jaw and the cause of death is quite frequently misdiagnosed.
I could post some up but you could also Google it. Even with top notch qualifications medical examiners often fail to accurately diagnose. Some of those misdiagnoses come from being overworked, which is what I also said above. Understaffing and time constraints are often a problem.
Yeah I mean I want to see the report, because while I’m sure she’s qualified to evaluate information in isolation, even knowledgable people are in general hopeless at evaluating probabilities. There are well known problems in which despite having all the information they need, only 1 in 5 doctors give the correct probability and most are out by an order of magnitude. Forensics is also just an inexact science in general, which compounds the problem.
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Interesting that she got her PhD from Rockefeller University, which was one of the cia’s known illegal storage places for their biological weapons.
Also interesting that Nelson Rockefeller pretty much invented the CIA and David Rockefeller funded it.
Other facts include both papa Barr and AG Barr both doing their stints at the CIA.
Just sayin’. …