In the middle of the crash once I know how much I can afford to put in.
You cannot blame Trump for any of this. If Hillary was president the Fed’s monetary policy would not be substantially different.
HRC definitely wouldn’t have replaced Yellen with Powell, but she also definitely wouldn’t have been screeching at the Fed to lower rates. She also wouldn’t have started a trade war with China that is pushing us toward a recession that arrives before 2020 or ran the deficit up massively with a huge tax cut for the already rich.
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For the recession? It’s almost all on him. Trade war. Deficit-funded tax cuts.
No way to know, but I have to wonder whether his tweeting about it impacted it at all. He also picked the chair, and knowing Trump, I’m sure he had a discussion with him about keeping rates low.
Sure, the trade stuff could lead to a recession and that’s all on Trump. But that’s not what you said, you said that this recession was going to be particularly bad because Trump’s pressure has changed the Fed’s monetary policy. I don’t think that’s true at all.
Actually he had a much more dovish Fed Chair in Yellen but replaced her because she didn’t look the part of a Fed chair to him. One of the reasons things are going SO wrong for Trump is simple incompetence. Even if he knows that he needs to keep rates low it’s entirely possible that he wasn’t smart enough to care what Powell would do before he put him in.
I mean he’s tried to nominate gold standard lunatics who would 100% crash the economy for the Fed recently. He really has no idea what he’s doing wrt economics.
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Lol citation please
Citation for what?
That Hillary’s monetary policy would not be substantially different. You are pulling that completely out of your ass
Well, the Fed’s monetary policy to date leaves it in a position with less room to maneuver. And don’t ignore the tax cut blowing up the deficit. My main point, absent of blame, is that the levers that the government usually has to fight a big recession are not there/are not as powerful as they should be.
Where you want to place the blame for that doesn’t matter for the purposes of the discussion, but I think it’s perfectly reasonable to say Trump has a good chunk of it - especially on the tax cut/deficit side.
How do you think monetary policy would have been different if Hilldawg had been president? As boredsocial noted, Yellen was actually more dovish than Powell.
The burden of proof is not on me to counter your claim, the burden is on you to prove it. Or at least provide something more substantial than what you are providing here, otherwise it looks like you’re just derping.
And that would be fine because no record budget deficits in the middle of an economic upswing and no trade war. Fed policy doesn’t happen in a vacuum… And Powell showing up and being hawkish IS different monetary policy than HRC would have had.
Why isn’t the burden of proof on cuse when he said that Trump has caused the Fed to adopt a looser monetary policy?
The competitive outlook for my industry is looking solid.
Right but not in the way that cuse was saying
The joke when I was doing an undergrad in econ (I got out in 2014) was that econ majors did better on the LSAT than other majors, but if you were actually good at econ you would know better than to go to law school.
Also my (sadly now deceased) uncle who was one of the most sought after corporate attorneys in KY for 50 years told me in 2012-2013 repeatedly and in no uncertain terms to not go to law school. He felt that there were too many lawyers and not enough good jobs to go around. He knew what he was talking about.
If you’re already an established attorney I suspect you’ll be fine. If you’re a new grad and didn’t come from a top school you’re probably super screwed.
Yes the Fed has less room to maneuver but the solution to that is not to raise the discount rate to 4% several years ago. The solution to that is to keep interest rates lower longer, get inflation up and then target a higher inflation target than 2%. That way when a recession hits you have more room to lower interest rates. To the extent that Trump has articulated a coherent monetary policy (lol), that’s kind of the gist of what he has been saying.
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The number of people working into their 70s is actually still quite small. Like the number of people over 65 still working in only something like 20%.
Agree w/ Keed for once that Cuse is wrong on monetary policy, Yellen was more dovish than Powell and don’t think Trump hammering Powell to be more dovish changes that. Nor do I think the dovishness is a particularly bad thing, intentionally “popping the bubble” so that you “have the tools” to fight the inevitable resulting recession you just helped cause has never made much sense to me. Think erring towards caution in raising rates is correct. Btw, don’t think Trump’s thought process re: getting rid of Yellen was much more complicated than Obama appointed her, fuck her. Same way the Koch/Pence wing of the party has gotten Trump to do a lot of their bidding, pure spite towards Obama.
Think everyone agrees that the corporate tax cut gave (the wealthy) a temporary boost but set us up for a worse recession and that trade wars (particularly stupidly fighting every goddamn country rather than working w/ all our allies against China) will help trigger a recession.