It's the Economy Stupid

If there is a crash that affects my livelihood, I’m just done this time. Full blown nihilist hedonist till the fent kills me

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Of course it is almost all uninsured, all deposits over $250k are uninsured at all banks.

People with more than 250k deposited have been instructed to call the FDIC

It’s definitely up for debate on whether this particular country can avoid a crash as far as the outcome of the indices are concerned but it’s basically a lock to enter a far worse economic situation than the one we are currently in for the avg folk. But it’s always the frog in boiling water until you’re lucky to step back and see the new shitzone that you’re in.

https://twitter.com/cliffschecter/status/1634738390485680128?s=46&t=M0E3OjW75z_FOyxA8Zr8kA

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Yes that’s a very good analogy for Obama killing railroad regs and Mayor Pete telling proven lies about how he’s legally powerless to do anything

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When banks purchase securities, they are forced to decide up-front whether they intend to hold them to maturity. The decision dictates whether the securities are designated as “held-to-maturity” (HTM) assets or as “available-for-sale” (AFS) assets. HTM assets are not marked to market: Banks can look on nonchalantly as bonds lose value; they remain glued to balance sheets at amortised cost regardless. By contrast, AFS assets are marked-to-market—a purer designation but one that injects an element of volatility into a bank’s capital base. For smaller banks, regulators look through this volatility but for banks with over $700 billion in assets, that volatility directly impacts regulatory capital.

Initially, banks favoured the flexibility that AFS gave them. If conditions changed and they wanted to sell, they could do so without much fuss. Sell even a single bond out of an HTM portfolio, however, and the entire portfolio would need to be re-marked accordingly. Through 2020, around three quarters of banks’ securities portfolios were held as AFS.

But then interest rate expectations started to shift and bond prices began to slide. Having been sitting on mark-to-market gains on their securities portfolios, banks started to see losses emerge. Unrealised gains of $39 billion across banks’ AFS portfolios at the end of 2020 swung to unrealised losses of $31 billion by the end of 2021.

To staunch the bleed, many banks reclassified AFS securities as HTM. This meant recognising losses upfront, but the switch would protect balance sheets from further losses as bond prices continued to fall. The largest bank, JPMorgan transferred $342 billion of securities from AFS to HTM, taking its weighting of AFS down to 30%. Others followed suit: Across the industry, the weighting of banks’ securities held as AFS shrank from three-quarters to just over half by the end of 2022.

But rising rates didn’t just present cosmetic challenges around how banks classify their bond holdings; they also gave rise to more fundamental challenges around how to manage the portfolio. Although bank treasury executives witnessed a brief tightening cycle in 2017/18, they had never had to contend with as sharp a rates move as occurred in 2022.

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:roll_eyes:

I don’t understand what the bank’s collapse has to do with Pete. He has no power to control financial institutions. He may have power to influence transportation issues. What’s the “dunk”?

It’s mocking the conservative pundits who insisted that Pete must visit the train wreck in Ohio.

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I don’t know if it’s something he had to do, and obviously those pundits would say that even if it meant nothing, but I still don’t understand conflating something nominally within his authority to something definitely not.

Personally visiting crash sites is not something Secretaries of Transportation did, nor was it expected of them, until conservative pundits made it up for Pete.

Understood.

Pete does seem a little more high profile than your typical trans sec, but they’re not acting in good faith. That is always true.

https://twitter.com/LarinzoMosley/status/1362080954651656192?s=20

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https://twitter.com/davidsacks/status/1634972668536717313?s=46&t=RKQIqRrKzVps835SSEmebA

:thinking:

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Lol of course

https://twitter.com/lhsummers/status/1635007265563639808?s=46&t=XGja5BtSraUljl_WWUrIUg

https://twitter.com/chigurh_crash/status/1635020887618637824?s=46&t=XGja5BtSraUljl_WWUrIUg

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More LOL Larry, the guy can dine on shit IMO

https://twitter.com/AdamWeinstein/status/1635024211420004352

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I know they have to do this, but these letters never help.