Iowa Caucus Predictions... SEASON Thread

I think Biden is gonna be the story tonight…and not in a good way.

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Bunch of tech problems with some mobile app at a few caucus precincts. Yay.

I agree, have been predicting a 4th place finish for Biden in Iowa for awhile. I will repeat this for anyone who missed it the first time I talked about it. My household has 2 registered Democrats in Iowa. This is information available for the campaigns to see. I have not received 1 phone call, piece of mail, or visit from a canvasser for the Biden campaign. I have not seen a single Biden sign at any point. I have not met a single Biden supporter. Enthusiasm appears to be at zero, but I guess I’ll find out at my caucus site in a few hours.

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No worries, it’s not like one of the candidates relies on much more young-person support than the others and is more likely to have supporters using mobile apps.

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Playing devils advocate to myself, lol Boomers. But Pete and Klobs might have picked up enough Boomer support for Biden’s campaign to collapse.

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The app they are talking about in no way hinders the ability of anyone to show up to their caucus site tonight.

There are basically two things that will potentially happen tonight. Sanders will win or someone else will win and a very vocal group will claim the caucuses were rigged. They are already laying the groundwork for it.

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This would make me incredibly happy. He’s been at the absolute bottom of my rankings for a long long long time. I want Biden to go back to the old folks home and stay there, his legacy in tatters as punishment for being an asshole and running this cycle.

This is what happened. 2 midwesterners running in his lane and neither KO’d the other like he needed. This ended up being about the worst opening state you could’ve picked for joe biden with these other people.

Upon thinking about it, I can’t think of an opening state that would be worse, one of pete/amy wouldn’t get quite the support. Narrative is going to more brutal than reality out of this though, and actually if he finishes 2nd or 3rd, he’d snap take that obviously.

To clarify, I know absolutely nothing about the app nor do I think this app is evidence of anything being rigged. Just lamenting what at first glance appears to be a bad break.

If there actually IS Klobmentum, then Biden could slide all the way to 5th.

He won’t drop out until after SC though, unfortunately. If he does that badly in Iowa, though, I think his stranglehold on the south might break, tbh. Then who the fuck knows what’ll happen.

Has Bernie campaigned in SC at all? Klob hasn’t. Shit, i don’t think she’s even been to NV or NH much.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/481210-biden-allies-lower-expectations-for-iowa-most-feel-its-not-going-to-be

“Most [aides] feel it’s not going to be great,” one longtime Biden ally who has had conversations with top aides inside the campaign, acknowledged Monday.

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Biden fifth place is actually drawing live. Holy shit.

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My hopes are so high already. Don’t do this to me. It’s too much.

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See, look at these 15 people, the internet is not Bernie!

See, look at Twitter, the internet is Warren!

(Don’t yell at me Victuar, I’m actually rooting for Bernie!)

This whole ‘the internet is not real life’ argument is probably going to get weaker every year until people stop making it. I’ve had the internet since I was in 4th grade and I’m turning 35 this year. I barely remember what life was like before it at this point. I had a landline for 3 whole months when I briefly lived somewhere my cell phone got lousy reception and I needed to be reachable for work.

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Klob can’t win NV or SC, though she will go to NH if she does anything in IA. Bernie probably isn’t winning SC. Pete made a real effort in SC but only spun wheels. Steyer is actually getting real traction in SC, he’s at least third place there and possibly second. (and also tried hard in NV, but I don’t see it there)

I agree, but not this year.

FUCK MY LIFE my volunteers don’t even know how to load and register for apps. And these are not old people. Sure, the college students are ok, but anyone in their 30s and up…If I had a dollar for every person I’ve had to handhold into using slack and miniVAN I could start my own super pac.

don’t even get me started on the texting app…bangs head on keyboard

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I believe this is the worst possible state Joe Biden could’ve started the dem election with, so narrative will be bigger than reality but narratives matter more with people.

Lol boomers

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Counterpoint our Boomer president loves loves loves twitter.