Iowa Caucus Predictions... SEASON Thread

anon29622970 · February 4, 2020, 2:48am

I mean the one thing that seems certain is Biden is cratering.

Riverman · February 4, 2020, 2:48am

Lets just all agree to laugh at Biden until we actually get reliable info?

wheatrich · February 4, 2020, 2:48am

a lot of klob votes went his way too I noticed earlier. Pete’s base is crushing that, apparently they’re the most fun at the caucuses.

There are over 150 precincts tonight, we could have like 40 joe biden winning ones and none of us would know because few on twitter will be at any of them.

skydiver8 · February 4, 2020, 2:49am

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1224516408018636801?s=20

jerry · February 4, 2020, 2:49am

Seems like pete is really benefiting from warren and biden hanging just around viability. not sure who this is good for long term as he’ll probably not do too well on super tuesday.

its gonna be bloomberg isnt it.

anon3530961 · February 4, 2020, 2:50am

Yeah with ~2% reporting,

Bernie - 26%
Pete - 18%
on first alignment

Bernie - 24%
Pete - 27%
on second alignment

anon29622970 · February 4, 2020, 2:51am

Where are these results from?

anon3530961 · February 4, 2020, 2:51am

https://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/politics/iowa-caucuses-results-alignment/

Sean · February 4, 2020, 2:51am

the results seem bad for bernie so far but he is still the predictit fav ?

Sean · February 4, 2020, 2:52am

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5241/Who-will-win-the-2020-Iowa-Democratic-caucuses

wheatrich · February 4, 2020, 2:52am

You’ve basically figured out as much or more than the rest of us.

Riverman · February 4, 2020, 2:52am

McAuliffe playin’ the hits with Clinton stories GET THESE ASSHOLES OFF MY TV

smrk4 · February 4, 2020, 2:52am

“First Alignment” and “Final Alignment” are either video games or YA novel subtitles

anon3530961 · February 4, 2020, 2:52am

He’s cratering fast, now a 60/40 favorite. Was almost 80% at one point today

skydiver8 · February 4, 2020, 2:52am

first time I’ve seen a Klob win in the actual state of Iowa:
https://twitter.com/michaelshure/status/1224520232091471873?s=20

ChrisV · February 4, 2020, 2:53am

Looks like a two way Pete/Bernie race. I can’t decide if this is a bad result because Sanders opposition seems to be coalescing around Pete, or a good result because Pete probably gets crushed on Super Tuesday.

smrk4 · February 4, 2020, 2:54am

I could argue that Bernie close 2nd + Biden crater job is slightly better for Bernie than a clear first + Biden with a respectable 2nd/3rd

ChrisV · February 4, 2020, 2:54am

OK. Well she’s 2c on PredictIt so go make millions.

champ · February 4, 2020, 2:55am

If Biden drops out and GOPete gets all of that and Warren keeps going for no reason, Bernie will lose.

anon3530961 · February 4, 2020, 2:55am

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224525688348315654

Whisper of a dream…
The reason the results are taking so long is because turnout is unprecedented, and they are taking a long time to count votes in these sites where Bernie is crushing.