The claim was that employers were going to realize that work still gets done based on their experience now. That’s not what they’re seeing.
EDIT: Related: AMA about reading Frozen as a queer allegory/retelling of the Protestant Reformation
Is there productivity data on this? Because most of what I’ve heard is along the lines of, “See, it’s all still getting done.”
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True in my experience. The last two weeks have been incredibly difficult to get things done for this reason (lack of childcare). Most of my colleagues are struggling and projects are slipping by months.
I guess WFH would be a different scenario if I had a few thousand to invest in workstation setup with a good docking station, multiple monitors, proper chair and desk, and if I had ability to use day care. So maybe this doesn’t prove it won’t work, but it definitely hasn’t proved we are just as productive.
I’ve worked from home part time or full time for a good chunk of my career as a programmer. The key is when you’re working from home full time, you still have to get some baseline of work done. When you only work from home on Fridays it’s pretty easy to just turn it into a day off - as I’d guess for 90% of office workers we have at least one day of slack in the system.
Regarding the day care center - there are always others with crying babies or barking dogs. It’s an occasional mild distraction, but in no way did I ever think “man, that guy/girl is really not productive”. Maybe employers are that dumb, but I doubt most are going to to freak out about that as long as they see work getting done.
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I’m way more productive working from home. No yambags is like a 2+ hour boost.
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And commuting time. That’s just dead time.
I’m kind of back in the camp of - yeah the unemployment #s look scary - but the super smart guys know those #s way before I do. So shrug emoji I’m back in the market.
The only thing I can think of where the market might be deluding itself (due to not being able to mentally accept the worst or w/e) is expecting things to go back to normal in a few months. I do worry about that. Are they pricing in unreasonable chances of a summer pause and/or miracle treatment - based largely on not wanting to believe how bad it can get? Maybe.
Maybe this is dumb but I’m in 4 stocks that I feel pretty confident will not go completely under - Microsoft, Quest Diagnostics, Amazon and Berkshire (thanks Riverman when that tanks) and a little bit of Exxon. Index funds kinda scare me because companies could go completely bankrupt and drag the whole index down. But super smart guys know that too so my stocks are already at a premium already.
Yes
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I don’t share your certainty on this one. I was sure enough they didn’t see Italy coming to the US to get out of the market. But then again we’re probably not going to be Italy.
I also think there’s a reasonable chance of some kind of a summer pause (+social distancing, +masks, +treatments) that will buoy stocks for a while. I just dunno what the %s are of that but it feels in the 50/50 range for me.
Berkshire B is basically a hyper-tax efficient index fund.
It’s not that I’m certain, it’s that whatever positives we could see wouldn’t come close to pushing the market back up near earlier highs. And we have no idea how bad the unemployment/impending bankruptcy crisis is going to get. So weighted across all outcomes I’d rather keep cash. I am fairly confident there won’t be any summer pauses though.
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So, unemployment claims shatter predictions, and the DJIA is up on the day? Wat.
Right - so that’s probably the entire difference in our positions. I’m not super confident either way on summer pause.
Also the Spanish Flu killed 60 million people and went on for years. Maybe a totally different economy back then. Or maybe it wasn’t so different? I dunno.
Big money must have known yesterday since it crashed then. Rigged game
Well more like a managed fund right?
I told everybody at my firm to take their docking stations, monitors, and anything else they needed to work comfortably home with them. Most people got set up pretty well. Some of them grabbed their sit/stand desks too.
Most of the ones working well from home don’t have kids. My wife and I are both working from home and we have a 7 year old daughter. It’s been challenging, but we’ve been managing okay.
Trump pumped oil
With no fees and the best manager of all time.
And it appears to be fake news according to the Kremlin. I posted it in the DJT thread but I bought oil puts as soon as I saw the story/pump. Trump has lied about almost everything, why not this as well?