Of course they recover. People are getting a little hysterical I think. You really imagining a world with no restaurants, theatres, bars or concerts ever again?
Some won’t recover but the industry will of course recover.
1 Like
3 Likes
Theaters are already on the ropes, this shutdown will bankrupt chains and VOD will take over more fully.
Sure maybe but that’s hardly a world without theatres or restaurants.
Why do you think that? People are going to need a job whether their mortgage is in default or not. There needs to be a place for them to work (both physically and organizationally) in order for them to step back into work without massive disruption.
The rationale for keeping people’s financial situation stable during the crisis is humanitarian, not economic. It’s compelling and important, but it’s a separate objective.
I’m somewhat curious about the policy of declaring a 3-month holiday on all interest and rent obligations. Combine that with some sort of sliding scale payroll tax credit that goes from (spitballing) 75% of wages for the quarter for employers who don’t lay anyone off down to 25% for people who lay off but rehire at least X percent of employees within 3 months.
Before it became a general euphemism for firing, being laid off used to mean that you worked at a factory that was shuttering production due to low demand, with the expectation that you would be rehired once things picked back up. We desperately need that concept of a temporary interruption in employment to remain. If the only options are for employers to eat their entire payroll as a net loss for months or else lose their workforce, it’s a disaster either way, because they’ll either fire everyone or go bankrupt, and it doesn’t matter which. Keeping the components of businesses connected enough that they can reassemble but flexible enough that they don’t drag each other into bankruptcy is key. Then the government needs to pick up whatever loose pieces are left over with generous unemployment, loans, etc.
It’s both. A lot of those jobs are present because of consumer demand in our economy. Consumer demand is present because people have money in their pockets. If we keep individuals afloat with money in their pocket, the demand will be present when we try to get things going again, and it’ll be much more likely that businesses re-open and re-hire people quickly.
Took the profits on this after a gain of nearly 9%.
Some type of bill is going to pass soon, and I don’t want to pretend to know how the market will react.
If it’s a shitty bill and the market goes wild temporarily because it doesn’t know that it’s shitty, I’ll probably buy this again.
Which ETF? Want to research some bear ETFs and keep them in mind. Is it leveraged?
I bought DXD. Basically goes up by negative 2x how the DJIA moves.
1 Like
To be clear, I don’t do this sort of stuff normally. But I can certainly identify this as a black swan event much better than the general public (in no small part because of this and the general COVID-19 threads).
2 Likes
At a little over 60/40 stocks/bonds at the moment and going to move about 10% over to stocks at close today. This stimulus bill will get done whether it be tomorrow or 3 days from now. And if $2 trillion before shit really starts to go down doesn’t do anything then WAAF.
To be clear, I’m not convinced that we aren’t all fucked. But if WAAF then the allocation of my retirement account doesn’t really matter anyway.
1 Like
If we get some kind of stupid rally this week I might be tempted to do similar. Weekend seems to always bring bad news.
this is why i’m 100% stocks no matter what. at least then i have the most money longterm in non-WAAF cases
Futures up 3%, presumably on news Trump wants to end all this bullshit, let people die and get the economy going again, despite a complete lack of authority to do so.
1 Like
Well my wife just texted and told me she moved her entire 401k into a government bond fund. She just lost a shit ton of money.
Yeah you never want to be the last one to panic.
If NYC hospitals get overrun I think there’s one more big wave of selling panic, but it might take a week or two. I’m not jumping back in yet.
We are 25 years from retirement. There is zero reason for her to be speculating with her 401k
It’s a fight or flight response. Lots of people have it when you give them a steady stream of info about crashing markets.
2 Likes
Question from a finance lay-person: If I had a good sized chunk of credit card debt that I wanted to consolidate into a low interest loan, would it be a better idea to do it now, or wait several months for more market fallout?