Trying to mix it up instead of just listing FANG stocks hitting all time highs
Speaking of FAANG, QQQ is now 2.5% off ATH.
Did this go through? I’m under contract now too. My realtor told me up front it’s still been a seller’s market and I thought he was crazy but I quickly realized he was right. Immediate impact is more sellers not wanting to deal with showings than buyers not wanting to tour. Nothing but scraps and overpriced homes on the market longer than a week. He’s expecting a short term flooding of the market next season so that’s not good for me but I can’t wait a year. And if stonks are going to be propped up with free money maybe the housing market will be OK too.
Yes, enormous bullshit from Wells Fargo (I know), but mostly on track to close in a few weeks. This market also never flipped to buyers (yet).
Should I be maxing a Roth instead of my 401k? I have the option to shift my allocation over from a traditional to a Roth on the website. Right now I max HSA and 401k, nothing in Roth.
Unless you’re pretty confident that your income in retirement is going to be higher than it is right now, and maybe some edge cases like enormously shitty funds in the 401k, I lean 401k. 401ks are tax-advantaged right now, so even in the unlikely event that tax law changes to fuck over middle class investors, you’re at least getting some benefit. With a Roth, you’re always drawing live to some bullshit but unlikely tax law change that you end up getting taxed on it twice.
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Minor edit here, I think:
Unless you’re pretty confident that your
incometax rate in retirement is going to be higher than it is right now
There is a chance income tax increases, especially in upper brackets (I think most people here think it should), so if you’re in a low bracket now you may want to use the post-tax Roth to manage the risk of higher tax rates later.
Well my transactions finally cleared so now I’m not sure what to do with all my dry powder. I’m going to at least wait until after the weekend and the Tuesday bump #s (which seem like they’re bleeding into Wednesday now).
This is a really fascinating time imo - because we’re at an inflection point where all the models, which rely on trends, are basically useless. It’s obvious cases aren’t going to plummet. We know a lot of people are going to die and red states are going to lie about it. Those are a given.
But to me the $billion question is will the #s keep muddling for a few months - or will the hospitals get overloaded again to the point where govts have to act?
No one knows what R0 looks like for “sort of opened up, in summer, but with some masks, no big events, and new rules and a lot of behavior changes”. Anyone who says they know what’s going to happen is FOS imo. But the picture should get a more clear with every week that goes by.
I think it’s a given a lot of places will have to shut down by fall at the latest. But that could be a long way off. Wall St. doesn’t think that far ahead.
I think you pretty much nailed it. The one thing I think would really spook wall st and ignite a second panic sell off is more shutdowns even if they are just regional or state and city specific. Whether or not that will happen or not is really anyones guess. The market has pretty much priced in us getting back to business as usual by fall. Even early signs in the next couple of months that isn’t going to happen could signal to the market that isn’t going to happen and trigger at least somewhat of a leg down. Of course if the numbers permanently trend down somehow I won’t at all be surprised to see the markets make new ATHs by the end of the year.
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I really think you guys are discounting the effect of current interest rates.
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Sick valuation pun. Can’t wait to use it next time I teach.
You are probably right. My tax advantaged accounts have been buy and hold the whole time. I don’t even look at them. I suppose my theory with buying longer dated puts right now is all based on a second wave of panic. Obviously there is no guarantee it ever comes. My position is a bit of a life hedge also. If the economy goes into the shitter that is really going to suck but at least I have a pile of money from stonks gambling. And if it doesn’t well then I will be better off frankly than if my options print.
Made some moves to reduce my exposure over the weekend. I was about 60/40 stocks/cash in my IRAs.
I sold most of my VTI, which is about 12% of the IRAs.
I moved about 10% from an S&P fund to QQQ.
I sold my NRZ (residential housing) (less than 1% of my accounts).
I put about 4% into MRNA and bought a small amount of calls for MRNA $130 with a strike date of 10/16.
This means I’m now 51/49 stocks/cash and my index funds are now 52% QQQ, 40% VOO, 8% VTI.
I believe QQQ crashes less than VOO and VTI if there is news of shutdowns due to hospital overload between now and Tuesday morning, so that’s the reasoning here.
I need to move most of that cash into bonds next week, every time I start to research bond market funds, I get sidetracked and don’t finish. I need to find the lowest risk one that won’t crash much/at all even if the market crashes. I suppose I want an ETF, at least for part of it (so I can quickly move it into stocks if we crash again).
If we crash again, my goal is to get as close to 100% stocks as possible without trying to time the bottom - so basically work my remaining dry powder back in again like I did before (buy every time it drops 2% or so). I’m young enough (turning 34 this week) to be comfortable all-in on equities during a big buying opportunity, I can rebalance it later on.
It’s kind of sad that people are so innumerate that something like this is needed to explain how much money that is.
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no sports to bet on
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Hmmm, maybe buying a house could be a possibility
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Stonks!!!
I think we see all time highs if/when the vaccine (announcement obviously, it won’t be available to the public [poor]) beats the second wave of cases in fall