It isn’t really from her. Cases might actually show both, but the state report from when they used to do reporting clearly labels most metrics as Florida residents. Cumulative cases have a sub breakout between res and non res.
I know that. Just having some fun.
2 Likes
I don’t follow this thread obsessively like I used to, so I’m not sure what the prevailing sentiment in this thread is anymore. Could someone point to where I’m off base with my thinking?
A. Original estimate of herd immunity was 70-75% based on R0 of like 4.
B. Delta R0 is like 7, so herd immunity target is adjusted to like 85%.
C. Previous herd immunity assumptions were based on the premise that transmission among fully vaxxed people would be de minimis.
D. Apparently, transmission among fully vaxxed people is actually considerable, and protection might be something like 60%, with the 40% of breakthroughs possibly as infectious as unvaxxed people.
Combining D and B would seem to imply the reproduction rate of fully vaccinated adults is >1 absent other mitigations. Therefore, herd immunity through vaccination is an extremely faint hope, except perhaps in places that already have very high vaccination rates and low infection rates. In places without both of these requirements met (the USA currently has neither), then all of the population will be exposed to COVID–it’s just a matter of time.
(Obviously, this means vaccination is more important than ever, since it seems a near certainty that literally everyone is going to catch this thing. Anyone hoping for a free rider effect will have no such luck.)
Is this basically right, or is there still a plausible path to this thing not sweeping through the entire US population?
2 Likes
Where’d you get this from?
so I got linked to this today
mt vernon school board meeting - YouTube
if anybody is willing to have their ears bleed, you can take a crack at it
That’s really how I’m feeling. Herd is now impossible. Basically hoping mom being vaccinated saves her. Looks like a fair amount of people who are vaccinated end up in the hospital
Yes, it’s this.
Still pretty rare for an individual vaccinated person to get hospitalized right now.
Agreed though. Herd seems gone, I’m assuming I am going to catch COVID-19 multiple times in my life. I’m hopefuland somewhat optimistic that vaccines and boosters and maybe therapeutics will minimize the impact. Not gonna be making any 90th birthday life plans though.
Regarding herd immunity - let’s see where we’re at when the kids are all vaccinated, delta boosters are widespread, and the idiots have all caught it once. Yes that will take a year at least.
But unless we keep getting variants that are different enough to escape vaccines (which of course is possible) - then maybe we still have a shot at herd immunity down the road?
Maybe just getting all the school-age kids vaxxed will be enough to plummet R0.
Should I try to get my mom a third booster shot? It’s been about 6 months. We got moderna
Are they available yet?
Echoing @Trolly, this seems way too high. The KFF state-level analysis has, I think, been posted already:
You can’t get to the efficacy number just by comparing the % of cases among vaccinated to the % of cases among unvaccinated - you’d need to know the underlying distribution of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated in each state. But it’s very hard for me to reconcile these figures with only a 60% efficacy rate.
Maybe stating the obvious, but i feel better about that data somewhat accurately measuring hospitalization and death than cases.
A rough version on twitter from an epidemiologist. Hey conclusion is we will need mitigation beyond masks and 100 percent vax (wfh, better ventilation, gathering limits, etc) for a long time
https://mobile.twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1422595200615133189
1 Like
But Sir Andrew told MPs the idea of herd immunity was “mythical” with the Delta variant, now dominant in the UK, still infecting people who had been vaccinated.
He said while vaccines might “slow the process” of transmission down, they currently cannot stop the spread completely.
This presumption has nothing to back it up. Other then maybe Churchill because he thought about it. Not saying this is wrong, just that we don’t know this yet.
Of course, me too. But I think it’s possible to draw some (perhaps noisy) inferences about actual cases. IMO the most straightforward explanation for the disparity in the above graph is that vaccines are closer to 90% effective against cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic) than the 60% figure I responded to.
You could make arguments for why that number is overstated, like:
- the vaccination rate during the time period in question was much lower than 50% in these states (so you wouldn’t expect an equal distribution across the two groups).
- the unvaccinated were more likely to be tested than the vaccinated (so the true proportion of vaccinated cases is relatively higher).
- the vaccinated engaged in less risky behavior than the unvaccinated (so their counterfactual “non-vaccinated case rate” is still lower than that of vaccinated).
There’s maybe some truth to those. But I think it’s fair to start with the “Hey, seems like 90% or so” number until you can understand where these lower estimates are coming from. Which is why I think Trolly just asked for the source rather than saying it’s obviously wrong.
Other than that Israeli study of Pfizer during Delta
No.
1 Like
Yeah, I’m not trying to be a dick here or saying it’s wrong, it just seems way higher than I expected and I would like to see the source.
Everything I’ve read suggests breakthrough cases are still rare, but then there’s the numbers from Iceland that don’t seem to make sense so idk what’s going on.
a lot of people are putting waaaaaay too much weight on an extreme outlier datapoint IMO
3 Likes