Thereās a certain irony in extrapolating linearly in a chart about Covid.
I think I figured out at some point that if the vaccine is fully approved for children, if we require all school age kids to be vaxxed with 95% compliance, then we need a bit over 60% of adults to also be vaccinated to get to 70% of the total population, which was the low end for herd immunity when I figured that stuff out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1400758008964169728
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1400765690840289284
I think people will riot if that happens. At least in red states.
I saw the post in question and feel like it was only borderline temp ban worthy, at least in a vacuum. That said, I think the ban is a good public service since JT was completely incapable of reading the room and realizing he was making a good and useful thread utterly unreadable by going scorched earth on everybody for what really amounts to a 10% difference of opinion on appropriate levels of caution and care.
I admire the dudeās passion and tenacity but he needs to learn to pick his battles, I can only imagine how exhausting he is to be around if heās anything like this IRL.
This is related to something Iāve been feeling recently, as Iāve been going outside the house a little more often: I have built up an enormous amount of resentment and anger over the last year and a half, and itās going to take a while for me to get over it. Between Trump and COVID, my opinion of people in this area has absolutely plummeted, and itās very hard to imagine being on friendly terms ever again. These are people whose kids used to play with my kids, or neighbors that weād at least talk to. But right now I canāt look at them without thinking of how they aggressively supported Trump or pooh-poohed the capital riot or hosted parties during COVID while complaining that their kids couldnāt be in school.
Maybe this will fade away with time, but it is genuinely hard for me to be around these people right now. Itās very unhealthy.
I donāt see much reason the vaccination rate will increase between now and then. If all we care about is if weāre going to hit the target, then this seems fine
https://twitter.com/thelancetinfdis/status/1400399173858570243?s=21
Any thoughts on this? Some people did a model where we lift restrictions for all people on 7/4, and case numbers end up higher than the January peak. Seems ridiculous to me, but I donāt know enough about statistics or epidemiology to argue why itās wrong. Is it wrong? Hopefully?
Iām not saying youāre wrong, but mandatory vaccination for school attendance is a thing everywhere already. Anecdotally, I was interviewing daycares this week, and they were pretty unanimous that theyād be requiring vaccination once approved. Not quite the same since they arenāt beholden to the GA electorate, but still.
I havenāt thought about this too deeply, but at some level isnāt this obviously true? Without restrictions, the virus grows exponentially until it reaches the herd immunity threshold and starts to burn itself out. Weāre not at herd immunity levels, and we wonāt be by July 4. Ergo, without restrictions the virus will grow exponentially until it hits the herd immunity threshold and starts to burn itself out. Notably, this study looks like it was based on the Alpha variant, and Delta is more infectious, so it could be even worse.
The good thing is that the most vulnerable populations are disproportionately vaccinated, so the hospitalizations and deaths wonāt be nearly as bad.
This is probably missing some nuance, but if OG COVID had R0 of 2.5, and Alpha is 50% worse than OG and Delta is 50% worse than Alpha, then Delta has R0 of 6.25?? It seems like that canāt be true (maybe Alpha is just better at evading social distancing but similar in uncontrolled settings?), but if itās even close to true, aināt no one getting to herd immunity without a lot of infections.
Iām not sure how to square that with the states that are basically fully reopened now and are continuing to see declines in cases. I guess as people ditch masks and get more comfortable the numbers will go up?
Oh I agree. I was just enjoying the persistent human desire to protect things linearly. Its really baked into the human brain. Its not always wrong of course.
I think the point was more that even the 68 percent number by July 1st seems wildly optimistic given the decrease in the rate of vaccinations.
But I like flying on Delta
Itās not about herd immunity though. Weāre never getting to herd immunity but at some point so many people have immunity either through vaccinations or from having covid that we just donāt have the raw numbers for Covid to run wild through the public and get back to something like the January peak. I mean assuming by July 4th something like 55 percent of the public have been vaccinated plus another x percent who have not been vaccinated but who have recovered from Covid, I donāt see how itās remotely possible that we have a peak worse than January. The virus just isnāt going to transmit as efficiently in the population when 3/5 people or whatever are immune. Youāre never getting to the same R0 level as January.
Why not? Thatās on par with rubella and some other airborne viruses. obv all these R0 values reported are very rough guesses so far. Itās actually odd that COVID hasnāt been more infectious.
Wrong thread.
Summary
Sorry, the Mrs is having some tests done today and I have lots of waiting room time and Iām a little punchy.
I donāt see going back to January level nationally. Locally howeverā¦.