COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

Caffine would probably know better than all of us, but looking through the notes there is a field for the immediate cause of death and a lot of lines that the coroner can fill out with contributing causes, but reading through I didn’t see anything that mentioned using anything contributing, only cause of death. There is a CDC Multiple Cause of Death dataset, but I don’t see it mentioned in the papers anywhere.

Edit: Opps for COVID 19 I see

Numbers and rates of COVID-19 deaths include deaths for which COVID-19 was listed on the death certificate as a confirmed or presumed underlying cause of death or contributing cause of death (ICD-10 code U07.1),

but it only mentions COVID-19 not the holistic methodology.

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That’s how it goes. It varies some by locality but it’s usually died of A with x, y, z contributing.

So if a smoker with copd died of a pneumonia you could do:

Respiratory failure caused by pneumonia with copd and tobacco use contributing

Strangely I rarely fill out death certificates. Usually even when someone dies in the ER it’s done by the PCP doc. That changed during peak covid, but that’s how it usually goes

Ive come around on not waiting at all for the J&J vaccine. Dont have any concerns about the vaccine, have some worries about J&J being more inconvenient for updating for variants, but have come around to faster is better.

If Im being truthful, Im going to actively avoid the AZ vaccine if it is approved for US use before Im able to secure an appointment. If there was nothing else available Id take it. With three others available Id rather not. Not sure how dumb Im being with that distinction, but that’s where I am.

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So in the table posted above, it would be listed as +1 for cause A and +0 for causes X/Y/Z?

It seems pretty unlikely to me that AZ is ever going to be approved for US use in it’s present form. And even if it is, I don’t think the US is going to pursue using it. We’ve already got enough for everyone using Pfizer, Moderna and J&J starting in a few weeks.

It’s wild to me that people are still waiting and unable to get an appointment.

I’m getting my second dose at a Wal-Mart in Macon, Georgia, on Thursday. There’s literally not a single time slot that day that doesn’t have an available appointment. Anybody qualifies, no residency or citizenship requirements whatsoever.

The only reason I’m leaving Atlanta is that vaccine appointments here are still quite jammed, and I’d rather someone get the jab here who isn’t able or willing to travel to get it now. I’m importing immunity from Trumpland.

If it makes remotely any sense to go to a place that has the vaccine, it’s time to do it.

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I just became eligible today. MA does all their mass vax sites via preregistration. Based on what Ive seen from prior eligibility groups I expect I’ll get a link to an appointment from that list or through my primary care facility within two weeks. There are other ways to more aggressively find appointments, but I’ll give it a couple weeks.

I do wonder if we could be allocating vaccines more efficiently or if there are other bottlenecks.

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Also became eligible today.

Nothing in my county for the next two weeks, so going to my childhood hometown about a half hour north on Saturday. If I’m understanding the website correctly (which I may not be), I’m going to be getting JNJ.

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There should have been a formula for vaccine scarcity that shaped allocations going forward. It’s clear that conservative rural places are awash in the stuff, which entire blue-voting parts of the country have no availability at all.

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Yeah, it’s ridiculous. If Trump was still president, I think that many of us would be calling this allocation intentional.

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Part of this is I think one of the early Biden team focus areas, based on state feedback, was making sure that the states had certainty of supply weeks out to efficiently distribute vaccine. This was particularly true for the two dose vaccines. So it might just take some time to shift supply because I dont think anywhere was awash in vaccine 4-8 weeks ago.

Yeah, such reallocations should be on the margin, especially with new/increased supply. And even if that were happening, it would probably look very similar to how it looks right now.

Sterilize these people.

image

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I seem to remember people saying I was super pessimistic for saying that by midsummer I thought we’d have 1,000 cases per day and 25 deaths per day.

Right now, that feels quite optimistic.

lol, we’re never getting below 1,000 cases per day or 25 deaths per day. Ever.

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https://twitter.com/Oliviawitherite/status/1379105993414545420?s=19
https://twitter.com/Dicky_Rex/status/1379121937402716172?s=19

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I like how they describe it as faith, mistrust of science, AND politics. As though their conservative political affiliation is totally coincidental with their willfully ignorant fantasy beliefs.

Ohio has a fairly detailed data file available here.

It doesn’t give the age of each death, but it does report the following buckets:
0-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80+

Not surprisingly, the huge winter spike was overwhelmingly the 60+ group (orange):

You can kind of see an increase in the % of deaths that are <60 years old if you smooth it and squint, but that’s largely coming from the reduction in +60 deaths, rather than an increase in younger deaths.

Based on this, it doesn’t seem like there’s any obvious uptick among young people. I mean, if you knock it down to <40 years old, there have only been 127 deaths in Ohio out of 18,646 total deaths.

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6 covid patients with 3 admissions for me the past two shifts. Went a couple weeks with zero. Maybe I’m unlucky but I think there’s an uptick coming.

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Any of them vaccinated? I assume no? (Hopefully).

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