don’t think that’s necessarily true… maybe.
Anything that allows vaccine to sit unused in the freezer is a crime. Sadly it’s probably worse that inequitable distribution. But that’s more of a society problem. While it should be a priority in distribution in cannot be determining when the cause is underling fundamentals of systemic problems.
Take the vaccine into the urban areas and outreach.
This. We’ve had tens of millions of cases in the US, and surely lots of those tens of millions of people would well have come down with any number of other extremely serious diseases and maladies. It’s going to be extremely difficult/impossible to untangle all of that.
I’ve become more and more skeptical of covid long haulers… at least in the sense of the people who had minor symptoms experiencing serious symptoms later on. Feels like the chronic lyme, fibromyalgia, etc stuff that have little behind them.
My sister, who’s not generally a hypochondriac claims bouts of dizzyness which is like the 7th (edit: 17th) most common complaint
a more recent Jan 2021 article polling health workers who had covid…
A panel of health workers suffering with the long-term effects of the virus described pain, fatigue and debilitating nerve damage.
The issue is that unless you’re suggesting your sister has a had a stroke that comes and goes, it makes far more sense that she has peripheral vertigo which is extremely common and has no association with covid that I’m aware of.
On Twitter at least it’s a borderline grift in many cases.
Ugh, didn’t notice that was a Facebook link. The comments are all assholes who are bitching that too much COVID stuff is posted, they are over it, Fauci’s going to recommend 3 masks next. Anyway, here’s the link to the paper, issued in conjunction with the CDC:
My father and stepmom just got their first Moderna shots through a drive thru site for 65+ set up at the Dept of Motor Vehicles (in Delaware). They waited in the vehicle line for about an hour, but they said things seemed well organized and they’re feeling fine.
And I just spent 15 minutes having an ugly cry before posting this
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I’m a little jealous. My father and mother have been berating me for getting the vaccine.
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Meanwhile in an alternate universe in the Denver foothills - my sister who has an autoimmune disorder and just had surgery - is being told “the parents demand everyone back to campus” for her 20 hr/week high school counselor’s assistant job that can easily be done from home.
Absolute madness. The school’s lawyers (never even went to HR) told her she had to fill out an ADA form to try to get an exemption - which she did a couple days ago.
I just want to tell you both, good luck. We’re all happy for you.
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This is a good, simple table.on vaccine effectiveness, too.
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1356079020878786561?s=19
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Yeah, that’s a great post. It’s not like it’s new info, but I think it helps people to see it that way.
Who cares if the vaccine is 78% effective or 95% effective. Obviously I prefer the latter, but if it keeps me out of the hospital and keeps me from dying that’s good enough for me.
Now, someone will come and say what about these people with the long term effects? My impression is that most of them had it bad enough that they were hospitalized. But some probably didn’t. And as discussed above, it’s a very hard thing to analyze at this point. Let’s just focus on the not dying part first. We can circle back to that in 6-12 months after everyone has had a chance to get a full course of one vaccine.
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Ok, I’m curious. Details on beratement? What exactly is their problem?
Also, do they not give Trump full credit for the vaccines?
The gf had it last summer and says her smell and taste are only at 20% at best of what they were pre-covid. She also has bouts with the Covid brain fog still and is about to get some procedure done on some leg veins which her doc suspects (nothing studied/proven yet obv) was caused by Covid.
A weird number of the covid long-haulers I’ve read about were fitness trainers or marathon runners or something like that pre-covid. Probably because that makes a better story. But still it makes me wonder if the same damage to the heart that marathon running or extreme training does - could make one more susceptible to certain long haul symptoms.
Tl;dr so maybe my pony is ‘lame’
https://www-entrepreneur-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.entrepreneur.com/amphtml/364500
Steven Millman:
January 31st COVID Mini-Update: The darkest before the dawn edition
Very short update following up on the January 23rd update. My model continues to perform well and if it continues to do so, next week will be the last week of increasing death rates since they began to rise in October. After four months of continuous rise in death rates, I am projecting that the death rate will peak this week and then, finally, start to fall.
The model mortality estimates for the next few weeks are 3,350/day this coming week (Sun-Sat) and then will drop to 2,925/day, 2,328/day, and then 1,928/day by the end of February. This will be a drop in daily deaths of about a third. As I mentioned last week, what happens in late March and beyond depends very much on the spread of the new variants and the speed at which vaccines can be produced and delivered into arms.
In terms of model performance to date, I ran a few numbers to see exactly how it’s done over time. Since October first, the point where the rate of deaths started to increase, the model predicted that 242,656 would die by Jan 30th or 1,989/day compared to an actual death toll of 232,531 or 1,906/day according to Johns Hopkins University. This reflects an approximate 4.3% variance. Since Jan 5th (after the New Years undercount correction), the model predicted 85,710 deaths or 3,297/day by Jan 30th compared to an actual death toll of 85,980 or 3,307/day. This is about a 0.3% variance over the last 25 days.
Although things will be improving soon, due to the emergence of much more contagious and possibly more deadly strains, we need more than ever to get the vaccines out to as many people as possible, wear the masks, and social distance. If we all do the right things we could see this horrible pandemic under control by Easter/Passover. I don’t know about you, but I think that would be pretty great.
Once again, I’m not a medical professional - y’all want to listen to people like Dr. Fauci if there’s disagreement. I’m just a statistician trying to make sense of it all.
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