I literally got covid this week, have been quite sick and have complained less than your group not being able to say the c word. Are you ever not the victim?
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Welcome
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Thatâs some specific strain analysis you have in your region. Not just in school but definately the physics class, almost like you have video footage of the infection.
Which country has this power?
Maybe stop posting for a bit.
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Iâm sorry to hear that and hope your youth sees you through this quickly with no lingering health issues.
Your lack of self-indulgent hysteria is a credit to you and an example to many of your compatriots.
I hope you realise that the â â â â â â and the c-covid words are not related.
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Like Iâll be fine!
Just like how if you guys canât say a word, or canât even get along with specific posters, will also be fine.
Well you know, if you canât call someone a â â â â â
This threadâs reinfection rate is through the roof.
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Quite frankly, I hope he doesnât stop. If youâre putting out bad information, whether by poorly selecting quotes from an article, by misstating the claims of an article, posting a bad article, or otherwise, you should expect to draw heat, and the correct reaction isnât to go on the offensive.
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One quality post per hour, but thatâs out of how many total posts?
Iâm posting this in spite of the risk of it being drug into whatever the hell the last 50 posts are but this new Covid super strain feels eerily similar to a year ago. Once area of the world taking it very seriously while the rest of the world does literally nothing and just hopes for the best.
Although in places like the US it wouldnât matter regardless we are never going to handle this with any degree of competence.
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Why does anyone bother replying to Churchill? Mute him like the other 75% of users. JFC
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Yeah thatâs the convo I wanted to start with my post last night but it incited furor and then caused a terrible sidetrack so I have now crawled back into my hole.
Also, I agree that the vaccine will likely work for the new strain. To me, that aspect isnât worth much discussion.
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There may be a more infectious strain, but honestly, I think the answer is still âSo what?â
Read the BMJ article Caffeine posted earlier:
Itâs reasonably likely but uncertain that this strain is more infectious, but:
- Itâs very unlikely itâll escape the vaccine, because, while the mutation is to the spike protein, the immune response to the spike protein that would be induced by the vaccine may generate multiple effective antibodies per individual, and only one of them has to work for you to be protected.
- Itâs very unlikely that masks or other PPE are going to be less effective against it
- Even if a new vaccine will be needed, updating the mRNA vaccines is easy.
- Itâs unlikely the new strain would require alternative medical care.
So, like, other than travel restrictions on the UK, thereâs basically no other actions worth taking even if the new strain is definitively more infectious. Youâll still want to wear a mask for the time being. Youâll still want to get the vaccine. Widespread vaccination is still almost certainly game over for the virus.
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Iâd appreciate your comments on this one published 2 days later than BMJ, posted earlier up thread
This was part of the analysisâŚ
Work by Prof Ravi Gupta at the University of Cambridge has suggested this mutation increases infectivity two-fold in lab experiments.
Studies by the same group suggest the deletion makes antibodies from the blood of survivors less effective at attacking the virus.
Prof Gupta told me: âIt is rapidly increasing, thatâs whatâs worried government, we are worried, most scientists are worried.â
Update from Steven Millman, nothing we didnât already know:
December 21 COVID Mini-ish Update: Yes, more people are dying in 2020 than would be expected. Lots more.
I have on multiple occasions addressed the various myths and falsehoods related to COVID death counts. The general message in these fountains of misinformation is that COVID deaths are overstated because either (1) people listed as COVID deaths actually died of other stuff or (2) They are people who would have died anyway because of age and/or infirmity. If youâd like to see the long version on why these statments arenât true, see my updates from Aug 8th (https://www.facebook.com/steven.millman/posts/10157238376976821) and Aug 30th (https://www.facebook.com/steven.millman/posts/10157291230501821). Or just trust me, they arenât true. Thatâs a much shorter reading assignment.
The most persistent remaining question out there - at least for people looking for additional proof that whatâs obviously true is obviously true - is whether more people are going to have died in 2020 than would be expected in a typical year adjusting for population. The answer, unsurprisingly, is YES.
As of right now, the CDC is estimating about 3.1 million Americans will have died from all causes in 2020 against an expectation in 2020 that 2.7 million would have died based on prior years and population growth. This turns out to be just under 400,000 excess deaths, a number thatâs a bit higher than the number of people who are known to have died from COVID. While the CDC data used here are a little challenging to work with if you arenât used to it, they can be found at the following URL if youâd like to check my math:
https://data.cdc.gov/âŚ/Weekly-Counts-ofâŚ/muzy-jte6
You can see a visual description in the image attached that makes it pretty clear that this isnât a normal year, and you can even play with those data and see your own stateâs excess mortality at:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
To be perfectly clear: The folks dying of COVID are NOT people who would have died otherwise, and itâs not because of misattributed death certificates. MANY MORE AMERICANS ARE DYING THAN CAN BE EXPLAINED OUTSIDE OF THE OBVIOUS ANSWER. The obvious answer that COVID is killing Americans in the hundreds of thousands.
Wear a mask. Social distance. Stay home for the holidays. Get the vaccine when itâs your turn. Be smart and live to see the holidays in 2021.
As always, Iâm an exhausted professional statistician and not a medical professional.
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One of the authors of that paper was also one of the main source of quotes in the BMJ article, Nick Loman. Itâs not really saying anything new or different; itâs just being more precise (the BMJ article didnât tabulate all the observed non-synonymous changes, e.g.).
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I donât see what the first paper does to change anything.
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I just read the abstract for the second paper, but it sure seems to be talking about a different mutation than the new virus that has people worried. It also is a case report, although an interesting one. I donât see how itâs applicable as itâs an entirely different mutation though.
WTH may as well weigh in. Going for comedy here.
Often when a new bird flu arises the source country just Eliminates the entire flock to stop further spread.
Good thing about Brexit, otherwise it would be the EUâs decision what to do with the U.K.
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