Great. So he’s going to try some holistic BS and have a mild case because he’s a young athlete, then crow about it.
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Some people believe that the government is inherently evil, so anything it tries to do must have a nefarious purpose.
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Not looking good for in-person college classes. @spidercrab are you still not allowed to opt for online teaching?
Things could get interesting…
Brazilian judge orders Bolsonaro to wear face mask in public
A Brazilian judge has ordered Jair Bolsonaro to rectify his “at best disrespectful” behaviour by wearing a face mask when circulating in the capital, Brasília.
The president has sparked outrage by repeatedly flouting measures designed to slow the advance of a coronavirus pandemic that has killed more than 50,000 Brazilians.
The rightwing populist has made a succession of public appearances – at protests, shops and even a floating barbecue - wearing a mask incorrectly, or not at all.
On Monday, a federal judge ruled Bolsonaro was not above the laws of the federal district, which contains Brazil’s capital, and would face a daily fine of 2,000 reais (about £330) if he continued to break the rules. The use of masks has been compulsory there since late
So Yakima county in eastern WA is sending some of their covid patients to Seattle now. Fortunately Seattle has been in a period of not sucking so we have plenty of bed space. Unfortunately we are moving toward open for business just like everyone else. I figure Jay Inslee has enough spine to shut it all back down before we get overrun.
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This seems like a big week for Covid numbers. Will we see the case of usual suspects hit even higher new highs? Will we see some some of the other states that have flatlined start to increase again? Arizona is about the only key state in so far and they already set an all time new high today.
My best guess is that we break the all time daily new case number by the first week in July if not sooner and see new case numbers in the 40k+ range by that time.
7 day moving average looks like it is increasing at a slightly lower rate than it was in March, but in March we started at a baseline of ~10. Now our floor is lol 21K. Also a lot of the March experience was actually due to an increase in testing capacity. Now we are catching a hell of a lot more of the actual cases, which is good, but we have almost zero ability to do anything with that information other than hope people who test positive stay the fuck home.
I didn’t understand the study the same way you do. I thought that the methodology was:
- Take ILI reports from CDC data.
- Use that data to train a model to predict expected ILI cases in a given week.
- If actual ILI reports are more than predicted after adjusting for confirmed flu cases, assume the excess is COVID-19.
- Then, because ILInet only covers certain providers, scale the COVID-19 cases up to reflect the whole population.
- Then, because only some infections are severe enough to require medical care, scale that estimate up further to reflect a population of asymptomatic cases.
To be clear, I think the last 3 bullets introduce an enormous amount of uncertainty. In addition, the ILI prediction model is really the heart of what they’re doing, and they didn’t spend much time on how good it is. In particular, it seems that they didn’t validate the model on data outside the training set, so we don’t have a sense of how much of an error is reasonable to expect.
But I didn’t get the sense that anything was trained on NY specifically and then applied to other states. The NY serology figure is a validation of one of their model predictions, not an input. I think.
Anyone else watching?
I’ve seen some memes showing it turning into the MIddle East with everyone wearing face covering attire all the time and also others say it’s first step to Bill Gates chip and vaccines.
It’s not remotely clear what classes will look like this fall, which is crazy since they’re scheduled to start in 2 months. Students will be on campus. Classes above a certain size (100 students?) will definitely be online. For the remaining classes, faculty are supposed to offer their preferred format - fully online, entirely face-to-face, or a hybrid. The hybrid model is not well defined (not defined at all, really), other than featuring somewhere between 25-75% in-person instruction.
I have no idea what format my classes will take. All of the faculty I’ve talked to are extremely frustrated at the lack of guidance we’re getting.
I knew that ~150 cases or whatever yesterday was bullshit. Almost 1500 more cases in Louisiana today, but only 35 in New Orleans. It’s really starting to spread out.
What’s the latest on antibodies tests? Worth getting one or is it still not reliable?
I may have hit some sort of breaking point. A much younger friend was telling me about going back to the gym. I said not me, been working out at home. He said oh, your gym isn’t back open? And I went into a @JohnnyTruant level rant on being considerate to my fellow humans during the time of a pandemic, how enraging it is when people won’t take the bare minimum precautions like wearing a mask. IDK if he really agrees or was as intimidated as I am by Johnny’s posts, but he switched his tune quick.
I don’t know if it’s even right to be so direct about it. I’m just overwhelmed seeing how many people are unwilling to do even the bare minimum when just doing that would have a massive effect on containment.
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Good post.
Also it appears you discuss Yemen often enough for your keyboard to autocorrect that word eh :P
I think it’s in part because so many real-world issues have become politicized. Politics often is so much theater that it’s fine for people to tune out, but in the process, they miss out on how to discern actual important facts that never should have been politicized.
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Hospitalizations way up today in SC. From 731 yesterday to 824 today. That’s about 13% increase in the last 24 hours and the first actually concerning jump we have seen as far as hospitalizations go.
And the lower case total was because fewer tests came in, up to 17.4% positive…
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I think for a lot of people it’s as simple as the fact that the gym has reopened must mean it’s safe.
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