The Phase 1 trial was only done on people 55 years or younger. So that seems like a legitimate concern.
Given the general incompetency in the UK right now, this might actually not be a bad thing. 
Hereâs what would seem to be the best way of doing things for opening up, which is basically South Korea:
- Lock down hard to get your active cases down and the testing capacity, PPE, and contact tracers up.
- With a positive test rate of <5% and an active case load under the capacity of your contact tracers, you can open up in a limited fashion, with the usual distancing, masks, emphasize outdoor activities over indoor when possible, etc. No large crowds.
- If thatâs enough to get your R under 1 still, great, you can think about opening up some more, but then itâs a game of whackamole when some areas get flareups and thus tighter restrictions for a couple weeks, etc.
Maintaining that for, well, probably a year or more until thereâs a vaccine (or a therapudic better than remdesivir) is success. By keeping a low, constant case load itâs a lot easier for higher risk individuals to keep their chances of infection low on their few, necessary outings or meetings, and that low, constant case load is going to be enriched for younger, healthy people who are less likely to die from it.
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A lot of vaccine ready by fall stories out today and not just from the Moderna trial results. Seems pretty odd considering just about every expert I have heard talk say it will take a lot longer than that. Makes me wonder if the optimism is based on reality or just the desire to get people back to work through bolstering the âthis is almost overâ message we have seen from a lot of people over the last couple months
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Itâs 2
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Yeah hopefully itâs 25 accidental does of cyanide. Oops, sorry!
Massachusetts OFB in four phases, with construction, manufacturing, and churches starting today, retail with curbside pickup, office space at 25% capacity, and the all-important hair salons on 5/25. Each phase at least 3 weeks, guided by public health numbers. Seems decent, but makes isolation of high-risk people even more necessary.
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/reopening-four-phase-approach
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If you are not doing widespread testing and tracking, positive tests are bad.
If you are testing everyone and tracking contacts you can shut down outbreaks quickly. If you are just YOLOING like the US is then a positive test is just another brick in the wall and in a month we have 30,000 more bricks and then 100,000.
Gonna be a lot of vaccine hype and false starts. Roll out of bad vaccine is probably the worst possible timeline. Even if the net is positive. 1/1000 or even 1/10000 deaths from the vaccine will cause widespread panic.
In addition to what others have said, if you grant that your goal is to get R = 1 during your reopened status (which is a somewhat optimistic goal, but roll with it) then you wind up with:
X active cases * time before vaccine / 14 day case duration = T (total population that will become infected)
0.5% of T will die.
So if your vaccine comes in one year and youâve got 1,000 active cases when you reopen, youâll have 1,000 * 365 / 14 = 26,000 people get infected, and 130 of them will die.
If waiting two weeks in lockdown reduces active cases by 50%, youâll chop that 1,300 deaths down to 650 by waiting a couple weeks.
For NYC, it was necessary to wait many weeks in lockdown. They probably had a million active cases in mid-March. Every two-week lockdown extension amounted to many, many thousands of lives being saved.
When you end it is a tough question. The variable of not knowing precisely how well youâll be able to keep R=1 during reopening is a daunting one, and probably means we should be cautious and wait for other places to be guinea pigs while we continue lowering the expected fatalities over the next 12 months as much as possible. In Georgia, we did the opposite of this, and volunteered gleefully to be the guinea pigs.
It seems we are all beginning to dip our toes back in our social pools, and I think we absolutely have to, this decision came after a day of sobbing, back and forth feelings of fear vs. freedom. This has not been an easy ride for me.
As we ease back in to a more social life after months of safer at home, and yes I understand LA County is still Safer at Home until July at least. Iâm keeping in mind a few things:
A) Just like before this whole mess, everyone of us thinks differently and we all have different opinions. Thank goodness! Still the same. Letâs respect that.
B.) Every family unit and individual has the right to make the best decisions for their families and selves, depending on their unique situations without getting judged, by someone outside of that.
C) No matter what our thoughts are over this entire situation, wether it be the virus, the over reaching government, things magnified in our personal lives, whatever; it is of the utmost importance to be aware of and respect everyone we come in contact with, because we are all going through something, give people their space. Lead with Kindness, communication and understanding. With all the uncertainty, itâs hard to believe anything we read, and that can be scary.
D) We are all trying to do what we feel is best for ourselves. I personally am making an effort to do less scrolling and more living in the present moment, with myself, family, the friends we have widened our scope to, nature to reconnect, feel alive and free.
F) We cannot stay inside away from each other forever, that is detrimental to our health on several levels.
G) I remember, I am in charge of my health, my decisions, and my actions, only me, not the government, not my family, not my friends, not my neighbors. Trust my intuition and do what is necessary for me to thrive, now and forever.We are in this together. We are all one. I hope sharing this helps. It helps me. I love you!
The hippy dippy 3rd-way libertarian bro ('s wife) version of âyour fears donât trump my rightsâ.
Still trending downward despite the easing of the lockdowns that started two weeks ago, so thatâs good. Should have ~1.8M cases two weeks from now.
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It is propaganda. They keep claiming it will be out this year to keep people settled down on one hand, and protesting anything sane on the other.
In October the message will be âIt is almost here! We should have it very soon! #VoteTrumpâ. And then it might come out a year later.
lol, some of that is fine, other parts of it make me sick. âcant stay inside foreverâ luckily no one is asking you to do that you sack of shit
Gyms and other thinks opening today in Texas. I think it is appropriate since the weekend showed the highest case volume ever.
And of course âThe Honk Kong flu raged while everyone partied at Woodstockâ is all over her comments.
I have a friend whoâs in that circle, who called me about the Honk Kong flu thing. I explained to her that the only reason weâre only at 100k deaths now is because we shut the country down, which of course she immediately got. If we could have muddled through with 100k deaths w/o shutting the country down, they would have done it.
That is what you do when youâre actually curious to know the answer about something and not just looking for arguments to support what you want to believe. You call someone you know who spends way too much time researching covid. Sadly it seems rarer than a flying unicorn that farts rainbows these days.
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Is there any way to create collections of states with this? Would be interesting to see w/o NY/NJ. And then more interesting with just the states that opened up early.
In the US you have places like NY/NJ with a huge spike thatâs still falling, fighting with other states that might be rising.
Yeah Iâm not totally freaking out about Texas yet because half of that spike was when they wenât in and tested a whole meat-packing plant or something. But still watching the trends closely.
Texas imo is a good example that there is a lot of noise to filter through on both sides of this thing. Obviously the lefty noise is not in the ballpark of derp misinfo. But if you see someone posting âTexas with huge spike!â on FB thatâs still basically noise and not really telling the whole story.