At this point it’s just like watching a car accident in slow motion. We know what’s coming. The question is now can the green states who just re-opened slam the brakes on in time once they see the smoke billowing from AZ/TX/FL/etc?
Oregon would be the prime example of doing it. Remember when I started these, they were in trouble, but they closed back down where needed, got a little into the red in Days to Overflow, but never really ended up in a dire situation. Now they’re doing ok. But the R0 is still ~1.2, that’s not going to cut it. Eventually they need to get it down.
I need to modify Cali tomorrow, their hospitalization rate seems much lower, so their testing rate is probably higher, thus their Days to Overflow is off because my range of hospitalization rates is based on the national averages. So their situation isn’t as bad as it appears.