COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

It’s not often Trump isn’t the idiot in the picture but here we are.

Mask is upside-down.

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It’s roughly 30th in absolute numbers, rolling 7d average is just 214 (but yes, rising quickly, 11% positive which is +4% in the last week).

I’ve been too lazy to set up per-capita data since it would require me to *gasp* import state populations but yeah, it’d probably be good to get a look at that too.

My model sort of does this by using hospital beds per capita and population to project hospital overrun, some my date range will give you an idea. Idaho has been creeping onto the lists, but now it’s barging in and saying, “Hello, world!”

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At this point it’s just like watching a car accident in slow motion. We know what’s coming. The question is now can the green states who just re-opened slam the brakes on in time once they see the smoke billowing from AZ/TX/FL/etc?

Oregon would be the prime example of doing it. Remember when I started these, they were in trouble, but they closed back down where needed, got a little into the red in Days to Overflow, but never really ended up in a dire situation. Now they’re doing ok. But the R0 is still ~1.2, that’s not going to cut it. Eventually they need to get it down.

I need to modify Cali tomorrow, their hospitalization rate seems much lower, so their testing rate is probably higher, thus their Days to Overflow is off because my range of hospitalization rates is based on the national averages. So their situation isn’t as bad as it appears.

Alright, I manually typed the population of every state.

graph

Idaho looks impressive on paper, but no one’s got shit on Arizona.

Interesting that the data set of both “most cases per capita” and “most cases” is, like, 95% overlapping - UT, ID are the only states here (replacing NY/IL) that don’t show up in the “most cases” graph.

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Where are you getting this? I follow the daily positive percent numbers and the past 3 days have been 20.1% (all time high), 15% (drop but essentially flat from the week before), and then back up to 19% yesterday. SC numbers are trending up

I’m calculating 7-day averages, so

Last 7 days: 71321 tests, 9786 new cases = 14% positive
Previous 7 days: 41572 tests, 6623 new cases = 16% positive

Decent video that will remind some here of the dates WHO made various announcements (like human to human transmission)…

Ouch. Looks like it was one group out of many, but holy hell. As they say highly communicable diseases are highly communicable.

I’m going off official SC released data. Covid tracking is messing something up as testing positive percent has been up up up in SC

Everything on this is correct but this is awful public communication particularly where the issue is that too many people think that wearing a mask is inconvenient. This graphic makes it look like wearing a mask is a huge nuisance.

Goldman’s analysts found that wearing face coverings has a significant impact on coronavirus outcomes, and they suggest that a federal mask mandate would “meaningfully” increase mask usage across the country, especially in states like Florida and Texas, where masks are not currently required. The researchers estimate that a national mandate would increase the portion of people who wearing masks by 15%, and cut the daily growth of new cases by between 0.6% and 1%.

Reducing the spread of the virus through mask-wearing, the analysts found, could be a substitute for strict lockdown measures that would otherwise shave 5%—or $1 trillion—off the U.S. GDP.

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Btw. Read a journal article yesterday.

Global energy usage this year will likely be down 6% YoY because of Covid.

Greenhouse Gas emissions will be down further. At 8%.

This is basically the largest drop in history.

For context though. We need to reduce GHG emissions by 7% every year to 2050 to keep warming below 2 degrees.

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There’s little point wearing a covid catching mask if you’re going to pull it off by the mouth part and store it on the kitchen countertop, then give your nose a good pick afterwards.

Would be a short graphic if it just stated ‘put mask on, you’ll never catch it then’

I understand. But the point is they really do need something snappier because the problem is concentrated in lazy people with short attention spans.

A friend has been sending these kinds of pics for a few days. This was this morning and this is not normal.

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I’m not really knowledgeable about vaccine stuff but has anyone seen this pfizer news? Is it just same old stock market pump stuff or is there any substance to the trial results compared to the several other trials we have seen?

I have a probably stupid question about masks.

I keep my “real” masks (N95, KN95) in my car. If I’m going for a walk in my neighborhood or whatever, I just wear a cloth mask. If I’m going to the store, I wear one of the N95s. After I wear it I leave it in my car. Will my car masks lose effectiveness over time? Why? If the mask catches some virus when I’m in the store, but I don’t touch it or wear it for a couple of days, shouldn’t the virus have broken down or whatever by then?

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Deplorables at work discovered the Covid tracker on their phone and boy are they not happy

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Probably, but no one knows for sure.

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