There’s a million plus more disabled, and those kind of numbers matter
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Now do excess deaths, disabilities, and early retirements.
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Printing with movable type, industrial revolution, the microchip, the internet
Colonialization
Rise of the “great” religions
Mechanization of war
Electricity
i’d probably put it somewhere along discovery of penicillin, because it ushered mRNA vax
The number of excess deaths not otherwise counted, plus people too disabled to work, are less than 300k. Excess deaths represent maybe a 50% bump to the official totals.
Dark Ages likely set back progress thousands of years
Worldwide the lastest estimate is 3-fold.
This study tells a different story.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(22)00191-8/fulltext#%20
If these proportions held nationality, you’d have 450K deaths among 18-65 year olds nationally from 3/1/20 to 11/30/21. That doesn’t account for the disabled, nor does it account for 62 year olds saying, “Ah fuck this pandemic shit/catching covid shit/wearing a mask shit, I’m retiring early,” or “Holy stimulus stonking, I’m retiring early.”
That’s a 21 month stretch and we’ve had 10 months since. The deaths per day have decreased against at least the first ~year of that sample, so it’s probably like a 40% increase to get up to date.
So call it 630K, more than twice your estimate.
Who knows how many long covid has forced out? NPR cited an expert estimated 4M are unable to work due to long covid.
So that’s 4.6M, and it doesn’t include early retirements. 4.6M represents around 2.9% of the workforce, and keep in mind the deaths are somewhat concentrated among essential workers and the service industry.
Oh yeah and none of that includes the fact that seasonal migrant workers haven’t been allowed in as easily, if at all. Atlantic City hotels had labor shortages because they rely on foreign seasonal workers for housekeeping.
So add in the early retirements and the decrease in foreign seasonal workers and it’s not a stretch at all to estimate about 5% of the workforce being taken out of the labor pool.
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I avoid this thread generally so apologies if this has been discussed to death but has there been much discussion about any genes etc making you susceptible/less susceptible to getting covid? Probably too early to have any research on it but any theoretical discussions from experts?
I ask because basically nobody on my mother’s side of my family, residing in Australia, Poland and USA, have had covid despite constant exposure. I was asking around all weekend and basically zero cousins, uncles, aunts, second cousins etc. And there aren’t covid-denialist types, I have been a very close contact often including one occasion where I went out to a bar with about a dozen other people and everyone but myself and one other got pozzed.
I recall there being a study about blood type correlating, but I can’t remember if that’s one of the ones that stood the test of time. I also don’t think it was a strong enough factor to make it likely an entire extended family could completely dodge covid without going full N95 all the time. It was a reduced risk but not immunity.
Anyway, if you search the COVID threads for “blood type” you can probably find it. Problem is there are a lot of covid threads, this being Chapter 10.
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While I am not skeptical of post-viral illnesses, I am super skeptical of all these wild estimates of the burden of long COVID. There are huge problems with definition. For example, in Bach’s piece, she says:
The Census Bureau’s June to July 2022 HPS survey found that 16.3 million people (around 8%) of working-age Americans currently have long Covid.[1] This report uses HPS data rather than Current Population Survey (CPS) data—which is generally more robust—because the HPS asks questions specific to long Covid, and the CPS does not.
Here are those “questions specific to long COVID”:
Did you have any symptoms lasting 3 months or longer that you did not have prior to having coronavirus or COVID-19?
Long term symptoms may include: Tiredness or fatigue, difficulty thinking, concentrating, forgetfulness, or memory problems (sometimes referred to as “brain fog”), difficulty breathing or shortness of breath, joint or muscle pain, fast-beating or pounding heart (also known as heart palpitations), chest pain, dizziness on standing, menstrual changes, changes to taste/smell, or inability to exercise.
Answer choices: yes, no
Do you have symptoms now?
Answer choices: yes, no
That is a VERY broad range of symptoms and it has been shown in other studies that large numbers of people who have never had COVID will answer “yes” to that.
Then down when she’s transitioning to figuring out how many people are out of work, we get this:
- A study published in The Lancet, found that 22% of people with long Covid were unable to work due to ill health, and another 45% had to reduce hours worked.
But here’s how The Lancet recruited their sample of “people with long COVID”:
We conducted an online survey of people with suspected and confirmed COVID-19, distributed via COVID-19 support groups (e.g. Body Politic, Long COVID Support Group, Long Haul COVID Fighters) and social media (e.g. Twitter, Facebook).
It goes without saying that “people who hang out on support groups for serious long COVID” and “people who answer ‘yes’ to ‘do you ever experience any of this laundry list of symptoms’” are not equivalent groups of people. Just smooshing these numbers together and pretending the results will make sense is plainly bullshit. I haven’t dug into the rest of her methodology, but the above is plenty good enough for me to write the whole piece off as nonsense.
Edit: To be clear, I think long COVID is a significant problem and has caused a significant drop in labor market participation, but I am very skeptical it is 3% of the workforce. Does anyone here directly know anyone who has stopped working as a result of long COVID?
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I’m in the same boat. Nobody on my mothers side has gotten sick nor have I or my kids despite several massive exposures and despite my wife getting it and massively exposing myself and my kids to it. On the other hand we’re generally extremely cautious and mask everywhere.
Yeah everyone on my father’s side has had it (except him). It’s very weird.
yea I’ve seemed to be one of those weirdos that doesn’t get it as well
Am I behind the times, or aren’t they still estimating some wacky amount like 40%+ of cases being completely asymptomatic? I feel like if that’s the case, a ton of these “dunno how I avoided it” anecdotes are from people who did in fact have it, probably at a time when there was no obvious exposure and therefore no reason to test.
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My vaxxed and bolstered brother has had it twice (including two weeks ago).
My Dad had it. Two of my sons have had it.
So I doubt I have special DNA as team NOVID. Maybe I just had an asymptomatic case. I’ve been pretty much YOLO since spring.
Yeah I think people forget it’s entirely possible to get it and not know it.
My boss was wearing a mask after coughing quite a bit the previous day. Wouldn’t be surprised if she has it.
Would getting a booster shot result in testing positive on a PCR test for a period of time?