50 cases out of 10,000 where the virus may have reactivated or it might just be false negative tests means the possible end of civilization? Like you’re mounting a strong case that the intersection of your Chicken Little takes and reality so far has been a fluke.
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what option should i pick if i think there will be exactly 60,400 confirmed deaths?
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I have lottery tickets for sale.
Today we might be seeing the first sign of the death rate decelerating in the US, we’ll know more over the next few days. Just eyeballing this, it looks like maybe 80-100,000 or thereabouts could be the final tally.
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So EmpireMan is still a big dog to win his <50k bet I guess.
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Ohio even putting out the best ads. It is such bizarro world when Ohio is leading the way. Though, there is starting to be a far right campaign to smear the health director that the governor had entrusted to make all the moves, probably because her and the governor are getting high marks from the damn libs. Ohio’s legislature is batshit crazy right wing, and I think they will be trying to force people back to work very soon, against the direction of the governor. They already had a little standoff over our primary election.
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Basically right on track with expected based on when the total cases curve started flattening.
Philippines is really fucking bad. We just have a bunch of sick poor people anyway and little testing.
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Dr. Amy Acton is doing a bang-up job with this crisis, and DeWine too. I’m very confused as to where this basic competence is coming from in Ohio. Naturally the locals all hate the both of them and I assume DeWine’s going to lose reelection in a landslide. They’re holding protest rallies outside coronavirus press conferences now.
I wonder if there’s any possibility this was COVID-19 but that it mutated into a more lethal version? Alternative would be lots of people contracting minor cases with a small amount of viral load (if that ends up being proven to matter), but I don’t buy that one cause it would have had to trigger some outbreak clusters if it was the lethal strain.
So I found this on the bogleheads forum. I’ll link the preliminary study in German, but this is supposedly a translation of the summary description:
I think “15%… are also immune” was meant to say that 15% tested positive for CV-19 or antibodies.
Have the far right trolls gone to the tactic of claiming that DeWine must be banging Acton? I feel like that’s the Gamergate-ish thing to do.
An engineer at UF designed a ventilator that you can DIY with parts from Home Depot for under $250.
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Ffs.
None. Of. You. Had. Covid. In. December. Or. January.
Bayes. Occams razor. Whatever the fuck you want to call it.
Jesus fucking Christ.
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My first question is how much of that has to do with overall health in Germany vs the US, specifically obesity, diabetes and heart disease.
But if 15% are immune then we’re on our way to herd immunity anyway if there is immunity conferred. And assuming the spread slows before heard immunity is reached, we’re on our way to being able to relax social distancing and still flatten the curve enough.
You’re talking about 59.5% getting it unmitigated versus 70% in a worst case scenario, and going from there. That flattens the peak in and if itself.
Scientist A: Here’s a falsifiable hypothesis of something crazy that we all admit is extremely unlikely but might be cool to rule out at least.
Scientist B: Ffs. Bayes. Occams razor. Whatever the fuck you want to call it. Jesus fucking Christ.
Scientist A: Ok never mind.
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Florida Man… Ruins Florida Man meme?
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Scientist C: I’m stuck inside all day, might as well think about something less morbid for a few minutes.
I feel like there may need to be a bit of a vetting process for something that can easily blow up your lungs if not executed just right.