I was supposed to head to Reno tomorrow to participate in the National Bowling Tournament, but now that’s off until September, and our team is just going to skip it, in hopes of going to Vegas tourney next year. I can only imagine how devastating this thing has been for your economy. Vegas too. Stay well.
Strong comments. Doubt it will change anyone’s minds
My wife makes an excellent suggestion. Get Sabin, Sweeney and Coach O to make a commercial that is
“Stay home if you want any chance at college football this fall”
Sent from my iPhone
Sent from my iPhone
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The trucks I’m dealing with are usually from companies with ten or fewer trucks. It’s a hard business to be sure but the drivers are averaging 1000-1500 a week and the dispatchers either own the company or make 40-60k a year depending on where they are located and their skill level. It’s a hard business and a lot of them go under any given year… but they represent somewhere in the neighborhood of 70% of the total trucking capacity in the US.
You are, of course, massively more experienced with the big trucking company experience it sounds like… but there’s a pretty decent sized gap between big trucking life and my world even if most of the people I work with on my side started over there.
I quit big logistics to go out and be an independent because it’s radically better. Everyone else should too. I genuinely don’t understand how they keep any drivers past the 2-3 year mark, and I have even less idea how they retain office staff with the horror stories I hear from them.
Are you that 2p2 poster who was with Celadon? Because yeah that place had a truly awful reputation and it was well deserved. There’s definitely a size where you can start being a hugely greedy asshole and just throw your weight around… which explains the behavior of all the big brokerages (TQL etc).
The thing you have to remember is that big trucking companies treat smaller shippers exactly the same way they treat their employees… very poorly (they charge as much or more than me and they provide lousy service). This leaves substantial gaps in the market for smaller guys like me (and the trucks I hire to do the work) to fill.
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Actually, Reno is (from what I can tell) in pretty good shape. Gaming has been (for some time) a diminishing source of jobs/revenue for the area, a lesson learned during the dot com crash. Lots more warehousing/tech stuff now, which is good. The places that are hurting are hurting - but things so far otherwise seem OK. Sorry about missing your bowling function.
MM MD
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As a parent, I’m really nervous about what’s going to happen in approximately 3 months when the Georgia school year starts. I’ll have two middle schoolers at that point. Our school district has been really good, but I fully expect the Governor to be all Leeroy Jenkins with it.
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Definitely in adult sized underroos.
What about season 3 of Atlanta. I like that show but they are supposed to film it this year. Seems unlikely.
So here is a what if the net US cases per day freezes as of last Friday and stays that way all May before we LOL lockdown as we have been most of April.
No biggie. Just an extra 65,000 dead or so.
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360k people drown in pools every year. I heard it from a doctor.
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Hmm maybe that link doesn’t preview. Netflix has an EXPLAINED episode on Coronavirus. Recommended to me by a healthcare sibling.
If places open up are they going to close back down if/when shit gets bad again?
That’s got NYC excess deaths at 12,700. Which is lower than the official NYC coronavirus deaths, so that probably means NYC at least is doing a pretty good job of counting deaths? Not sure when the excess deaths data went to but NYC was at 12,000 a week or two ago, right?
Yeah, I don’t think much filming is going to happen here for quite a long time.
Interestingly, Tyler Perry might open up his studio in the next few months. He has no timetable, but he has giant studio - he bought an old military base - where he thinks he might be able to film safely. There are functional barracks, homes, kitchen facilities, etc., so his idea is to make sure everyone gets tested and then literally lives there for the duration of filming. He believes he can film a season of a show in 2.5 weeks.
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Obviously if they have to shut down again due to hospital crunch, they will. Red states that aren’t run well will probably try to fudge it even harder this time and have better propaganda/deflection defenses in place.
This is why I’ve been saying to watch the federal govt if they still go ahead breakneck buying and making ventilators after the first wave dies down. Twice as many ventilators means they can push it farther next time.
Sure maybe it’s just an over abundance of caution. But this is the same govt that wasn’t buying PPE in February. Over-caution isn’t their MO. I think it’s just as likely they know vents are the bottleneck.
Yeah NYC and Chicago could conceivably be a bit over. Pretty much everyone else in the world is under. That’s the point. IFR isn’t magically less than .1% - which is where the over-count people always go with their argument.
It’s the standard Rogan Bro Facebook argument though to post one sketchy article about NYC then exclaim AHA! Establishment media/govt cabal caught pulling things over on the non-third-way-woke sheeple again.
And just leave it at that. No numbers. No further argument. Nope NYC might be overcounting = this is just like the flu bro. They have about as much grasp of the actual numbers or math as Rogan, the guy who thinks Bigfoot could be real, does on any science issue he discusses. Watch these two beefy doctors on youtube who say 64M are/were infected in the US: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU
And just to be clear. I like Rogan, and I don’t hate the third-way Rogan Bros, who I believe basically mean well and actually believe their own BS. I just think they’re misguided, but in a much less sinister way than deplorables - who are 100% bad faith just in it for the racism and they know it.
Another antibody test to be performed in Atlanta–should be good data for a medium hit metro area.
Interested in figuring out this formula in generalized terms:
- X = Implied Total Infections based on antibody studies
- Y = Confirmed Positive Cases
- Z = Confirmed Fatal Infections
- t = Testing Factor (percentage of cases tested, varies by place)
- f = Fatality Factor (percentage of fatalities properly classified, varies by place)
- IFR = Infection Fatality Rate (varies somewhat by place)
Then we have these formulas:
Y = X * t
Z = X * IFR * f
- f would appear to be 50% across the US by aggregate based on excess mortality statistics, highly variable by location.
- t is the major unknown. Appears to be 10% in NYC. California study implied 5% in Santa Clara, but had LOL methods. Any other data point? I think in hard-hit places it will tend to be ~10%, and in lesser hit places with solid testing more like 20%.
- IFR appears to be converging between 0.5% and 1%.
If we can start getting more stats in the form of antibody studies and excess mortality analysis across different geographies, we might actually, maybe be on the brink of understanding the scale and basic mortality characteristics of COVID-19. We’re still miles away from contract tracing and containment, but at least we can begin to use new data to approximate total active cases in different locations for the purposes of OPENING FOR BUSINESS and allocating medical resources.
Amazing it has taken this long, and we’re still not there.
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Hopeful that the CDC uses a CDC validated test and good methodology.
Not a chance.
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Yeah- only if it’s really bad. Some states having 100/day dead is just going to shrug its shoulder. Hey it’s only 1 9/11 per month.