THANKS FOR THE TWELVISH PERCENT ANDREW
My bet sizes are lol, but my market timing was solid. Can’t believe Yang was ever up to .35.
Eric Adams at 80 percent is ridiculous. He should be at like 95 at least (really 98 or 99 if there was no vig). Ranked choice voting just doesn’t overcome these kind of deficits.
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That’s what I thought when I shoved my stack in at 90c -_-
Lol, HODL. And shove more in at 80. It’s at 80 because people on PI don’t understand ranked choice voting.
I’m maxed on Adams so I shoved the rest of my balance on Garcia No. Shrug, we’ll see how it goes.
Once New York mayor betting over, I feel No on Herschel to win R primary for Georgia is a solid bet. He’s got some shot as he’ll be backed by Trump, but he’s legit crazy and think his campaign implodes at some point/he gets bored with running.
edit: Gaetz to resign by September 1 at 11cents is also free money. No way he resigns before being convicted and even if charged today, that is not happening any time soon.
the logic ive seen is that if absentees can cut the deficit to 4-5% for Garcia that RCV can make up the rest, i think over 100k absentees still getting counted.
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I like the thoughts on walker but man I don’t feel like no on gaetz resign is really free money at 11%. I think there’s a decent chance (but not “likely”) that he gets indicted in July/August and just slinks away from congress, there’s decent precedent on that.
I guess it’s possible, I just see no indication Gaetz would ever go that route. He seems to be going with the Trump route of fighting everything. I thought I also saw something that recently, no Congressman had resigned while just facing charges. Collins and Hunter both resigned only after pleading guilty.
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this post REALLY didn’t age well
Woops.
Meh, you’re fine. It’s a primary, there’s no real reason to think the absentees will break significantly differently from the e-day votes, and Adams would need to lose the 120,000 absentees 43/57 for Garcia to make up the difference. That would be a 16 point difference between e-day and absentee votes. Seems really really unlikely. This isn’t like the general where repubs vote in person and dems vote absentee. There’s just no reason for the absentees to be that different from the in person votes.
Guess I should wait for the election to end before bragging…
Y’all should be maxing out Eric Adams yes at 57 cents and Kathryn Garcia no at 41 cents. See my above post.
I’m thinking of doing this, but have you looked into where the absentee ballots are coming from? If more people in Manhattan used absentee ballots, that could help Garcia.
Most election people are actually thinking Garcia should be favored here. She unquestionably will gain in the absentees.
The question is how many absentees are counted/left. Might be more than we originally thought of zero, we’re all trying to figure this out before everyone else does.
The gods are punishing us for our hubris. I’m bailing out while I’m up.
I had a major haul with my 6 shares of Yang - No, and I sold them all at .99 to buy Adams - Yes at .87. Goddammit.