Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

I bet $2500 on Biden on BetOnline, I went to look to see if it was paid and it turns out that my wager was DELETED on Dec 11, the original funds sent back to my CC. No payout. WTF. They were sending me all those ‘be patient with this market’ emails and then they deleted my bet that was 99.9 % decided days before they paid out. I’m so pissed.

When I call them all they can tell me that it’s now under review by management. Of course I can’t talk to management, only the underlings who don’t know anything. I literally cannot understand how this could happen from a legit sportsbook.

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WTF that is awful. Hopefully it works out.

Were you betting from a jurisdiction they don’t allow bets from?

I mean I’m American, but as far as know they take US $$ all the time. Other Americans I know got their payouts just fine. If they did this en masse, the internet would be going nuts.

I’m sure a lot of the books were limiting their liabilities using betfair. $2bn matched wasn’t just from high rollers.

Also some solid reporting.

“ ‘You’re gonna regret this,’ ” Morrow recalls hearing from angry Trump bettors. “ ‘You’re gonna rue the day. This is gonna be the end of you. You’re gonna be working at McDonald’s.’ ” (Morrow sets odds from Antigua, where there does appear to be at least one McDonald’s.)

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This was probably the single most money making event in history for the books, right? Bigger than multiple super bowls and overwhelming amount of bets on the losing side.

That’s what the article said.

It doesn’t seem like these cabinet markets will move much anytime soon–look at the size of the order books, it’s insane. I don’t know of any better options, but also doubt I’ll be able to sell these positions for much profit at all so it’s basically committing to hold until March 1st. Up to you whether you want to lock up that long or keep powder.

What moves have you guys made the past two weeks or so? I’ve been too tilted to follow this shit but I want to hear some success stories.

I know you all were flipping that one tiered Georgia market but what else?

The “dem primary winner for prez” markets just settled. I manage to hop into the MA and SC ones a few days ago. Free $30 to help offset some fees

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Ooh all the presidential markets on PI except Wisconsin just settled. Including The Who won the presidential race type markets. Please post more maga tears here.

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Still waiting on EC and Popular Vote MOV markets to close.

I’m really, really tempted to go all-in on no congressional objections. Could max out three markets getting slightly better than 2:1 in each: zero objections, zero senators objecting, no Tuberville objection. Could go a bit farther by betting the corresponding NOs as well. (There’s also the zero house objections market but I think that’s too risky.)

Obviously there’s some risk that Tuberville is a true believer, but I think it being an anti-MAGA bet and a bet on McConnell’s ability to whip the GOP to do what he wants makes it a great tradeoff. Convince me I’m wrong…

Edit: there are also Paul, Cruz, Loeffler, and Johnson objection markets trading around 70-90c right now, could go into those as well but the payoff is much lower.

there’s like ten markets of just that, maybe more

your position is the same as many I’ve noticed. I’m still NO on 7 though, only tuberville would go that far imo. You don’t get points for grandstanding at 2 am.

They need a Perdue market on this though because he won’t be in office until his election is certified, which means he probably isn’t gonna be in the senate when this happens.

https://twitter.com/BeNosey/status/1338766363842719744

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https://twitter.com/DogsOfWar15/status/1339930835584233475

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https://twitter.com/fr4nkcastl3/status/1338786851226853376

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Well, that was a fun ride. Don’t think we’re ever going to see free money like that again.

https://twitter.com/LucyMorris05/status/1338835775455105025

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In a surprising turnabout, it appears that lucy had the ball pulled away from her foot this time.

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