Will any elected Dem officials be indicted for voter fraud? Some time limit obv.
Will any state send multiple slates of electors to Congress?
Will the results of any state not be certified by Dec 14?
Will any state’s electors get thrown out?
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How many inaugurations will we have?
Number of faithless electors.
Will Donald and Melania be married in 2022?
What is last date that Donald Trump be in the White house?
Everyone’s calling it and Texty McCheater conceded.
The Senate gap is 22K wider than the presidential margin. I’m thinking some provisionals must have been counted, or something, as Biden’s deficit shrunk from 75 to 73.
PI just settled the NC Senate market (or maybe this is already known, carry on)
Here it is: Thousands of provisional ballots in NC tossed out
I just bailed out of my 100-149 margin, got 1c (had bought for 2c).
Wherever this new NC info that’s causing them to call things is coming out, it’s not here: Election 2020 Results
Absentee: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=Press/NC%20Absentee%20Stats%20for%202020%20General%20Election/
Results: Election Results | NCSBE
About 46.6K mail-ins have been received since 11/3, as of this morning at 4:40 am only 38.7K were left uncounted with around 23K provisionals to be counted. They’d need a shit load more mail-in absentees to arrive 11/10 - 11/12 in order to get enough to swing it to Biden. We need 115K ballots to have any real hope, which means we need more to arrive 11/10-11/12 than arrived 11/4-11/9.
That’s not going to happen.
Remember that predictit is supposed to be about creating data to aid in research. If we can find papers that were written using data from these markets, maybe that would help in coming up with markets that interest them.
So who’s going to take one for the team and start a Parler account to post a link to the new PredictIt market? PredictIt
#NotIt
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1326349493630070786?s=20
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1326348588323131393?s=20
I have a parler account so that the username I usually use is not associated to some deplorable 
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nate silver is trashing prediction markets that absolutely crushed his model for this election
fuck off
(yes, NV market is stupid, but seriously shut up)
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I nominate @grue to make sure everyone on Parler knows about all the free money betting on Daddy Donald on PredictIt.
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Nate doesn’t understand that the markets allow a maximum number of participants.
He also doesn’t understand that the drift is happening because people are liquidating their positions to buy in other markets that’ve drifted further, thus compounding the overall site drift.
Nate has been bullshitting like a motherfucker.
He had one post about how you can’t say the models were wrong when they missed prediction but were very close on the margins and when they nail the prediction and miss by a lot on the margins.
Like wtf do you want. Only Traflgar people were saying the first. The rest of us were defending you until you missed every state by 8 points.
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Lol I was never on the Nate Train (I needed it explained to me the other night, how he became famous) so I can’t say, that’s it I’m off the Nate Train, but goddamn that’s some smarmy sophomoric bullshit.
your 5% was wildly optimistic given the rest of big red states going full big red. I could’ve just maxed the 95 to sell off if it didn’t immediately close in a day but I got too greedy sigh.
Trump team is bailing out of NV now, so that market isn’t gonna dip past 90 again (paging narrator)
Maybe, but Alaska is notoriously tough to poll and has an independent streak. If this breakdown holds up over the remaining sample, the presidential race will end up going 54/46, but Gross will underperform. That takes the presidential margin from about 15 four years ago to about 8.
There was movement in our direction, just not enough. Even in red states like Georgia, or red counties in PA, the mail-ins favored Dems quite heavily. I think 5% was a reasonable estimate.
I might have underestimated the amount of ballot splitting, though.