Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

Same. No way.

But then again do we really know he bet million(s) with an s other than his claim?

He apparently still had 100BTC left he wanted to bet at the last minute. Assuming he wasn’t trying to freeroll EM2 and disappear in Thailand. Which I still wonder if it was his plan in 2016.

I feel like in 2016 there were one or two hardcore politics bettors who were all-in on Hillary and then after the election swore up and down that they somehow turned a profit on “arbitrage.”

Full disclosure: I definitely got wiped in 2016.

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you don’t have to feel like, I remember this too. Nobody believed them tho

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To make 1 mill+ profit he probably would have had to bet 3+ million as well, which I realllllllly doubt.

Adanthar said as much before he ghosted.

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Getting more down on Biden. An aus site had 1.20 for a while but I wasnt able to get it in time. Getting 1.15 to 1.16 around the place though. He’s a lock at this point as far as I’m concerned.

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Agreed.

Sportsbet already paid out my bet on Biden to win, they’re still offering 1.15, I’m thinking about putting the winnings on Biden again.

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Yeah I am nerfed there. I tried to bet Biden pre election and was limited to $1.

Bovada still has Biden -575. They have settled enough of my other bets though so I don’t have any funds there.

Man, what a ride. I had never bet so big on something like this before. I maxed out a bunch of the PI Biden markets including MN, WI, MI, PA but I did it a week or two ago so the prices weren’t that great. I also bet a lot on some of the Biden landslide electoral vote margin markets, lol me. I think my overall ROI will only be like 20% because the longshots aren’t coming in.

I think I was way overconfident in 538’s model. Also I didn’t plan to live bet, from what you guys have said it seems like there was a lot of value available but you really need to have confidence that you understand where the votes are coming from. I’m glad when Florida came in and I started freaking out I just stopped following stuff for a while. If I had been on PI I probably would have panic sold right at the wrong time.

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I barely looked at a vote count all night, I was just looking at NYT needles and reading analysts and such. The argument for not panicking wasn’t that complicated. There was a heavy miss in Florida but it seemed localized to Cubans. GA and NC were showing smaller swings that would not be enough to wreck the Midwest and in any case, polling misses are often localised and there was no guarantee there would be a miss at all in a different area of the country that is heavily white. This does not add up to Biden dropping to 25% to win, which is what the market got to at one point. It just objectively doesn’t. It can be hard to stay rational in the moment though, especially when you’re used to markets behaving somewhat rationally. You start being like, am I wrong here? What am I missing?

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https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1324132803269840903?s=19

Biden is down from -1000 to -500, uhhhhh

Has anyone done the math to find value in the EC margin market?

What a ride. I was awake for 50 hours and did a straight flush of illegal substances, unloaded last 5k on Biden @ 4,4 after being already in for 15k+, never stop the madness.

Last time I bet on politics I lost 5 figs betting on Brexit, I SWEAR TO SWEET ELECTRIC JESUS I’LL NEVER BET ON POLITICS AGAIN! Humans are not equipped with mental capabilities to handle such swongs. Even though relieved, I’m still waafy af and I’m not gonna follow US politics no more, except for Trumps sweet, sweet tears of course.

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Only the assholes.

The day before the election I bet on Biden to get at 306+ voted in the electoral college. I basically written it off on election night but if Biden can win AZ, NV, PA, and GA he’ll hit exactly 306 and I’m starting to think I have a chance.

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PI’s on the ball settling markets today.

The cluster**** states won’t get settled for awhile though and I mean awhile.

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PA seems like free money at this point. I’m backing the truck up and loading it up with shares.

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I wish Bovada would pay my popular vote wager so I could use the powder.