Active shares is total shares. Today’s volume is how many have traded today. Total volume is how many have traded in the history of that particular market.
I took profits on 1/4 of my position in Warren for nomination at $0.45. I’ve been in since $0.12 and $0.45 seems to be getting into speculative territory. Thoughts?
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I’m super cynical on Warren winning it; Biden seems to be consistently winning almost every poll, plus who knows what kind of shenanigans the DNC is going to do to put their thumb on the scale. The Warren thesis seems to be that Bernie will drop out and his voters will give her the edge. OTOH, I might be jaded from watching the establishment Dems consistently fuck up almost every election in my lifetime. Also, for me betting on Biden is kind of a life hedge, if I lose money because Warren takes him to the woodshed, idgaf.
I’m long Biden as well.
And I think the thesis is a little more than just Bernie dropping out. There’s still a significant chunk of the vote spread amongst the others, Buttigieg, Harris, Booker, et al. I think she will take a higher % of their voters than of Bernie’s. And they will drop out sooner, continuing her momentum. Then she wins Iowa, and becomes favorite in NH, and all of a sudden Joe’s on the ropes.
All that said, I think Warren’s a little overvalued and Biden a little undervalued right now.
So, Andrew Yang has the most shares. Warren 5th, below Clinton. Anyone know how the # of shares s determined?
I agree Warren may have peaked on current news, but the Iowa poll is good.
Fucking Joe Biden.
Sold some Warren to win 2020. Got in @ 10, sold half at 33. I think she wins it all in the end, but seems like a good spot to take profit. Biden @ 17 now, not sure it makes sense.
“Will Donald Trump be impeached by year-end 2019?”
Right now at 33 … If everyone signed on right now, could this even happen that fast? I think he may well be impeached, but wouldn’t this take months of hearings?
Will the U.S. label China a currency manipulator in 2019?
Yes @ 72 now:
On or before December 31, 2019, the United States Treasury shall issue a report to Congress in which it concludes that China has met the standard of manipulating the rate of exchange between its currency and the United States dollar for purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade during the period covered in the report.
Seems like a spot where Trump could make a lot of noise and then do nothing.
Signed up w/ $100. Put down my whole roll on impeachment by end of 2019 at 35c a share. It’s climbing pretty fast. I expect news to break today and it to hover in the mid 40’s, at which point I’ll dump it and put everything into not impeached by end of 2019.
Am I doing this right?
You’re doing it perfectly lol. Predictit is more about predicting where the dumb money will go than actually guessing what will happen IRL. It’s actually super super fun.
Yea this is fun. What is the political demographic of the site? Does it lean one way?
Looks like I gotta start watching CNN again.
in my opinion it leans heavily to the right, with some Q supporters to keep it spicy
There are idiots of both sides on Predictit. The important thing to remember is that because bet size is capped the smart money has almost no role in setting the lines. It’s people who feel strongly feeding like crazy lol.
The important thing to remember is that because bet size is capped the smart money has almost no role in setting the lines. It’s people who feel strongly feeding like crazy lol.
Cannot be overstated. Capped market keeps out the smart money.
It also means that you can make pretty crazy ROI’s. I think that if you deposited a max roll in predictit and played it hard you could easily clear 7-8k a year.
Forgive my ignorance. I understand why caps keep out smart money - it prevents them moving the line. But how is this advantageous for a smart bettor?
I bailed out at .54. This market is wild and I don’t know if Dems have enough time left in 2020 to make it happen even if everyone was on board.
You can bet on “will Trump still be in office by 2020” for like .89 and basically get a small amount of free money. Problem is that the rake is crazy high imo.
I mean it isn’t, because making smaller ROI’s on bigger amounts of money is superior… but on the money you have deployed the lines are much softer. Imagine how much higher winrates would have been in online poker if there was no multi tabling.
You can make massive ROI’s on predictit on tiny sums of money basically. As compared to normal betting where you make tiny ROI’s on huge sums of money.
You keep saying that but I don’t get it. You only pay the 5% withdrawal when you withdraw. The 10% of profits sucks a little bit but only applies to winning positions. When you’re winning basically every bet it’s pretty tolerable. 5% of several multiples of what you deposited is also fine.
I agree that if smart bettors could flood the market the rake would be a huge problem… but they can’t so it’s super super beatable.
You have to adjust how good/bad rake is by how soft the lines are IMO. The lines on predictit are frequently hilariously wrong.
I think I’m going to start building a no impeachment position. If the Democrats have proven anything, it’s that even if they decide they want to or are going to impeach him, they will slow walk it to the extreme.