This is the problem. Like every discussion in American politics or policy has to factor in the depravity and stupidity of the right and incompetence or complicity of the left. Like we can’t discuss actual COVID solutions because lol that. We can’t discuss actual political strategy for the Dems because they can’t carry it out.
So I guess we just keep circling the drain.
Dems should demand six months to cover the rest of Trump’s presidency. That’s fair. GOP doesn’t want an issue of it before the election? Okay but they don’t get to fuck over the poor in the lame duck, either.
Yeah pelosi did counter with through end of q1 2021 but they said no.
That was smart.
I’m just not confident they’ll continue to play it right.
It’s frustrating, but I’m just hoping we take back senate and presidency in November.
Problem is we may need like 56 in the Senate to move anything anyway.
It seems like in this thread people are saying to shoot the hostages, which would have the ultimate effect of all potential future hostages thinking neither Democrats nor Republicans care about them at all. What’s at stake is an enormous amount of lives and the desire to ‘kill’ the GOP is not worth sacrificing them.
This kind of thinking is how we’re approaching 5 million cases of COVID-19 with over 150k deaths with a substantial portion of this country continuing to think this whole thing is a hoax. There are probably almost no members of this site who would be immediately decimated by losing that extension or have eviction on the table tomorrow. To treat your not at risk situation the same as those who are at risk of absolute ruin is callous, heartless, and frankly disgusting.
I’m not at all willing to give the GOP what it wants but also am not going to shoot the hostages to try to prove a point that the Democrats aren’t weak like is being described here. If this was a true clean bill of just the extra 4 months of $600, it’s not at all a good look for the Democrats. If they don’t get something better than that within the next few days, it will be a terrible look. For the last several weeks, a number of people have been pounding ‘clean bill, clean bill, clean bill!’ and now that’s apparently not good enough when it’s the people who need help and would get the help. If the GOP loses in November, that’s an easy extension beyond what was proposed. If the GOP wins, the country stayed alive longer.
This is not anybody’s reason. You know what happens when you negotiate with hostage takers? They keep taking hostages. We weren’t willing to risk the CHIP hostages or the DREAMer hostages or the separated family hostages for the same reasons you laid out. We took the bad compromise for the short term avoidance of human suffering.
Where has that led us? To millions of hostages. What happens if we do the same thing? The GOP will keep doing this and we’ll keep caving. And what happens each time? The 1% get a little more wealth, the racists get a little more wall, etc. And what happens when there is no more wealth to give, no more racism to allow, etc?
We’re dying by a thousand paper cuts because it seems less bad. But we’ve got an election in a few months and the GOP knows it’ll get the blame for this, by fucking over a huge chunk of the electorate. It’s not a few million kids’ healthcare or destitute immigrants this time, it’s millions of Americans.
You can also address it at the state level with eviction moratoriums in blue states and perhaps even expand UI in blue states temporarily (and then bail the states out if you win everything). You can even do your best to redirect campaign funds to charities in red states in need.
But you’ll never get a better chance to stand up to this tactic, it was a huge deviation from GTO for the GOP to back into this corner this close to an election with this much at stake for this many voters.
We keep desperately acting for the short term. What about the lives we save by ending hostage taking? We’re not shooting the hostages, we’re simply not negotiating with terrorists.
No but I have close friends on CARES right now, and my income will plummet in a couple weeks without the extension. I have some skin in this game, at least.
This isn’t a solution. Do you think there is going to be something higher stakes than the level of economic crisis this country will be facing in a month in your lifetime? Like some economist said months ago, the 2008 crisis is going to look like nothing in comparison to what we’re about to go through without something major happening YESTERDAY (I don’t mean specifically yesterday obviously). As a person whose life was changed in close to irreparable ways in 2009, I have no interest in re-living that again due to an unforced error in the biggest force majeure of our lifetime when this country can print unlimited money to solve this.
I’m not saying shoot the hostages, but I believe we shouldn’t take the option of shooting the hostages off the table.
My instinct is to think of this in game theory terms, but I was applying concepts from game theory to politics before I took up poker.
Let’s take a simplified view that both Republicans and Democrats are concerned mainly with how this affects the 2020 elections. Both parties can either resist compromise or cave in to the other side.
I would start by creating a payoff matrix based off of that. It’s a simple 2x2 matrix that would be a starting point for thinking about the situation. Some people have been pushing the line that all that matters is winning in 2020, that the fate of the republic depends upon it, so that seems like a reasonable thing to look at, however cold-blooded it may seem.
Who gains the most electorally if one side gives in to the other? Who gains the most if no deal is reached? Who gains the most if they make a deal that isn’t one-sided?
Once we establish this baseline analysis, then we can look at the value of some in-between compromises.
It’s very obvious the GOP has to cave because it’s their only play left to have any chance of making the election competitive (they are Thelma and Louiseing with the country intentionally if they don’t intend to make that play). But they absolutely hate the poor and figure if they can kill off 50k more with a couple week delay, great. They will cave to a great extent because they need anything that can resemble a win at this point. That’s the only reason Pelosi is so confident here. If she thought they would seriously go into recess by the end of next week without a deal they would have done the clean bill, in my opinion. She was super wrong about holding back the articles of impeachment, so she could very easily be misplaying her hand here too.
If the GOP has to cave, then it behooves Democrats to hold out until they do. Of course, there is the risk that Republicans act stupidly, which they have been known to do on occasion. With Trump as their leader, they can credibly threaten a form of Nixon’s Madman theory.
So, what should Democrats hold out for? One is liability protection for corporations. Democrats should absolutely refuse to grant McConnell’s wish on this point and, so far, it looks like they are sticking to that. Good for them. I would only consider agreeing to that in exchange for universal health care.
The other thing that Democrats should look for is protecting America from the tantrums of a lame duck Donald Trump. Democrats should work under the assumption that Republicans will not be inclined to help Democrats start off on the right foot by passing a post-election aid bill and that Trump might veto everything out of spite if he loses, so they should hold out for something that protects the American people through January, giving Democrats a chance to pass a follow-up bill, if needed.
It is possible that Democrats holding out for the best possible deal could lead to greater casualties in the short term, but that may be balanced by the potential for preventing greater casualties in the long term. Democrats should be willing to give up the instant gratification of a life saved now if there is a greater saving in future lives.
I suggest that this doesn’t have to be about preventing future hostage taking, nor does it have to be about killing the GOP. If Republicans have a strong incentive to cave, then perhaps Democrats maximize EV by playing hardball.
The Senate goes on a 3 week recess (I think) next Friday. This has to be passed by Friday, period. That’s the only acceptable delay, and that’s really too long unless they make everything retroactive.
I was drunk and angry last night. I’m sober now and I still think I tell Mitch to pass the House bill or fuck you.
Offer should get worse with every day that passes.
Also why are they negotiating at all, Mitch can’t pass literally anything.
Because they are Serious and Mature Adults. Taking a stand and wielding power is so unseemly.
I dont understand why everyone is obsessed with the 600 UE.
Does anyone actually think that was a good policy?
I think the real issue is not letting the GOP cut off benefits during the lame duck session / immediately after Biden takes office.
Yes.
Well it’s a lot better than nothing or less. Obv we should give everyone money but neither side would ever do that