Selzer is the gold standard of Iowa polling. If her poll says it’s this close, that is a really bad sign for Trump.
Normally it’s not really great to extrapolate state polls out to national trends, but she’s one of the few I would. This is a startlingly good poll for Harris.
Totally agree. I was more excited by this poll than most.
Because it’s a highly correlated derivative predictor.
Dems have won the popular vote like every election ever and not the electoral college. Doesn’t seem very predictive until the margins get way bigger.
Does it require a super majority to abolish the electoral college?
The big notable things that have happened have favored Republicans because Trump 2016 and Bush 2000 both lost the popular vote, but it’s just not that crystal clear. Obama only won 51% of the popular vote in 2012, but won 62% of the EC. Kennedy almost pulled a Trump. He beat Nixon by only 0.23% in the popular vote, but won the EC by a reasonable margin.
And of course Dems have not won every popular vote. Bush won the popular vote in 2004. GHWB won the popular vote. Reagan crushed the popular vote. Etc. The losing the popular vote, but still winning is fairly rare and you have to go back to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 for another instance.
Fully nuking it would require a constitutional amendment. Most common path for an amendment requires supermajorities in both houses AND approval by a supermajority of states.
Which won’t actually happen because a supermajority of states won’t agree, but maybe
I have my doubts about that project. I think a better plan would be to increase the size of Congress so that the Electoral College is closer to being proportional.
What if every state was like Maine and Nebraska? Wouldn’t that be pretty close to national popular vote? Or would that make gerrymandering worse?
Probably would just lead to gerrymandering. Some of the primaries are just proportional and that could happen, but the states that didn’t do it would become more influential if some states did those things, but not others.
How many times do people have to hear that these details don’t matter before they believe that these details don’t matter? And it’s not because the world is now “Post Truth” or some nonsense. It’s just that many people are adamantly opposed to ANY of these Haitians or non-white immigrants being here at all, regardless of whether or not they eat cats or get into traffic accidents, and they just don’t want to openly say that.
An honest story could just read “Black person with accent speaking on the phone overheard in Springfield!”.
My hunch is it would be closer to the national results, but there would still be some distortions It would also increase the incentives to Gerrymander in states that currently are not as heavy handed.
For example, if a California or Texas
suddenly went from winner take all allocations to district by district, the Electoral vote breakdown would more accuratelty represent the population breakdown (Repubublicans would get some electoral votes in Cali, and Dems would get votes from Texas which they currently don’t), but the way that districts are drawn could still skew the electoratate in a ways that would mean that, say, a 55/45 electorate would not necessarily (and probably wouldn’t) produce a 55/45 split in the Electoral College.
A guy I knew in high school in Ohio was a passenger in a car where the drunk driver hit a tree that killed another passenger. After the accident the guy and the driver left on foot to go to another party where they drank all night leaving their friend’s body to be discovered by someone the following morning. Anyway, I see on Facebook he is really worked up about that NYPost article about the fender bender in Springfield.
Another way to look at it is there have been 3 Republican presidential terms in my lifetime. Only 1 received the popular vote (Bush 2004). And hearing my dad tell it, that was the dumbest the American voters have ever been until Trump
You’re very young.
I think you know what you have to do.
https://x.com/Taniel/status/1835375501638021256?t=00Ft0tiLalf1m_cxydcQ5w&s=19
Classic Republicans. No insight unless it affects them personally.