2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

EmpireMan · July 17, 2024, 7:29pm

for me it’s:

biden << coronated kamala <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< unknown version of kamala who maybe exists and kicks ass and could beat trump and could emerge in a mini convention === any other candidate who could beat trump <<< whitmer, probably

Twist · July 17, 2024, 7:29pm

I could be wrong, but I’m fairly positive I’ve seen numerous polls showing alternative Dem candidates performing better than Biden.

monetary_expert · July 17, 2024, 7:29pm

the polls that say 70% of Dems want Biden to drop out? the same polls that say Biden is running 5-10 points behind Dem senators? You think Kamala wouldn’t be running any closer?

Trolly · July 17, 2024, 7:33pm

https://isitjoever.com/

microbet · July 17, 2024, 7:38pm

Wanting him to drop out doesn’t mean anything if they don’t like the replacement any better. It seems the polling and expectation at the electoral college are pretty close and mixed for both of them. So, shrug. But, the process will be damaging.

And it’s Trump’s election to lose regardless.

dlk9s · July 17, 2024, 7:43pm

My daughter turns 18 just before the election. She just asked if she could go with us to vote because she’s obviously never done it before and added that she’s excited to vote for the first time.

Then she told me a joke:

Is your refrigerator running? Because I sure as heck would vote for it!

She said her friend had a follow-up: you might not want to because it’s old and white.

EmpireMan · July 17, 2024, 7:43pm

seems like some good new polling data here (pdf)

wirelessgrinder · July 17, 2024, 7:44pm

I think it’s just that kamala has similar numbers to Biden but has theoretical upside in coming months, Biden has none

Slighted · July 17, 2024, 7:48pm

yeah i think kamala could come out in some public appearances/ a debate and rally the troops somewhat. i see no way biden does that. for the record im not a khive-r.

i also see no reason Trump should ever agree to a debate with anyone other than biden… just slam the “my agreement was with Joe not this illegitimate replacement” line over and over again.

Cactus · July 17, 2024, 7:49pm

Yeah it’s not even a matter of whether he’s mentally or physically able to complete another term. He’s not gonna win and even get the chance. That’s the message

wirelessgrinder · July 17, 2024, 7:49pm

Yea let Kamala take over, pound abortion hard on the campaign trail like a woman can and joe struggles with and give it a go, this joe stuff is some bullshit

gman42 · July 17, 2024, 7:51pm

Unless polling changes, I could easily see Trump pulling out of any future debates with Biden, with some sneering excuse that Biden looked so pathetic he doesn’t want to put the poor guy through that again. His base would find that hilarious and it probably wouldn’t affect his numbers at all.

lagtight · July 17, 2024, 7:51pm

Except Biden’s chances are much higher than 0%.

spidercrab · July 17, 2024, 7:53pm

I don’t think there will be a 2nd Trump Biden debate. I’m not sure it’s quite 50/50, but I’d be willing to bet $100 at 2-to-1 odds.

microbet · July 17, 2024, 7:56pm

Or she could get on the campaign trail and remind people how she was one of the top contenders and slammed Biden in the debates, but ended up having to drop out before the first primary.

lagtight · July 17, 2024, 7:57pm

Twist:

More from the interview (more substantive Bernie reasoning):

Sanders: I have been critical of the Biden campaign—above and beyond the debate, which everybody understands was a disaster. The truth of the matter is Biden’s record, in my view, is the strongest record of any President in modern American history. I don’t think they’ve done a particularly good job of getting that out

I’ve been extremely critical of this and I see it beginning to change now—it’s not good enough just to talk about what you’ve done in the last three and a half years. The American people are hurting. Sixty per cent of our people live paycheck to paycheck. Young people are worried, appropriately, about climate change; women are worried about their reproductive rights. What the President has got to do is get out there and say, “You know what? You reëlect me, give me a Democratic House, give me a Democratic Senate, and let me tell you what we’re going to do.” Did you happen to hear the speech in Detroit on Friday?

Chotiner: I did.

Sanders: I thought that was, between you and me, an excellent speech. And I think it was the kind of speech that he needs to take all over this country. He talked about an agenda for the first hundred days, which speaks to the needs of a long-forgotten working class in this country. And he’s prepared to take on powerful special interests. If he does that, he’s going to win this election.

Chotiner: To merge the question about him selling his agenda with the question about his age: I watched President Biden with Lester Holt Monday night, and I watched him on “360 with Speedy Morman,” and he is definitely getting out there more than he was the night after the debate. But just to be honest, Senator, I mean, the guy has trouble completing a single sentence.

Sanders: He does.

Clotiner: And then there’s this substantive question about whether he can be President for four more years. You have no concerns about that?

Sanders: Look, I have concerns about everything, you know? And everybody should have concerns about everything. As a nation, we do a very poor job, both in Congress and in the media, of focussing on issues that impact the working class. So I would much prefer to have somebody who can’t put three sentences together who is setting forth an agenda that speaks to the needs of working-class people: raising the minimum wage, making it easier for workers to join unions, dealing with the existential threat of climate change, protecting women’s reproductive rights, building millions of units of affordable housing—

Clotiner: Right, but you have to get elected for all these things to happen.

Sanders: All right, but I am saying that the American people are not stupid and they understand that substance matters. They understand what you have accomplished and what you want to accomplish is enormously important. And my criticism of the media, and some of my colleagues in Congress, is that we’re not focussing on that. So let’s focus on substance.

After reading the whole thing, he’s not doing a good job of persuading me.

Hard to imagine that anybody of Bernie’s experience and intelligence really believes that “The American people are not stupid.”

Trolly · July 17, 2024, 8:08pm

I think Team Biden desperately needs to prove Biden’s fitness, so they have to roll the dice and hope he has a much better second debate. Trump’s best play is to minimize variance and skip any additional debates.

spidercrab · July 17, 2024, 8:11pm

Yeah, I think combination of Biden dropping and Trump refusing is close to if not greater than 50%.

WichitaDM · July 17, 2024, 8:27pm

They aren’t. In a normal situation you would say hey we have 3.5 months anything can happen. But biden literally can’t make a case for himself or against Trump. He isn’t suddenly getting less senile.

His polling is cataclysmic and the only way it can really go is down .

lagtight · July 17, 2024, 8:32pm

Well said. I agree.