2024 US Presidential Election: One Week

Yeah I’m not referring to his base. I’m referring mostly to the cohort of “Trump to Biden to Trump” voters. It’s apparent from focus groups that they actually buy the idea that Trump has a way of making the prices of everything go down, and when he “shuts down the border” that their lives will become noticeably better.

Stake is the devil and fund rumble too. It is really bad and the audience for these gambling streamers are almost all kids.

I was thinking about Nevada and wondering if the whole “no taxes on tips” is actually effective.

I think Harris could have killed that narrative fast if she pointed out how flawed it is: Why do servers deserve a tax break, but cooks and dishwashers don’t? It would open a bunch of loopholes for employers to exploit. It’s never going to pass congress no matter who has control of the house.

It’s an empty promise from Trump that he has no intention of keeping.

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It’s worse than that, at one point didn’t she say “I’ll do that too”?

Yup.

Absolutely. This is just one example of her team’s failure on messaging I’ve been talking about in the Harris/Walz thread this morning.

It’s pronounced Dumas

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lol why the fuck does it take over an hour to vote two weeks ahead of time?

There are fewer places to vote early. Like over 90% fewer

Freedom and Democracy baby!

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This doesn’t appeal to anti-elitists.

What’s the theory here exactly? Because we have actual numbers of the youth vote (18-29) with Trump involved in some way:

2022 63-35% (+28)
2020 60-36% (+24)
2018 67-32% (+35)
2016 55-36% (+19)

It’s not like Trump is some unknown entity. Why in the world would youth suddenly move towards them? Trump isn’t running against some super old dude anymore.

The reason for thinking that it will happen is basically a few elections in Europe (but not some other elections in Europe) and some poll you saw (but not others). Since the idea of a youth movement to Trump doesn’t make sense without some reason to change, I’ll keep being bearish on it.

Same thing for Black Americans btw. They aren’t going to vote for Trump instead of a black woman at 25-30%. Ain’t happening.

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Hell yea

https://x.com/benwikler/status/1849156853860610531?s=46

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Voted in Tarrant county Texas (Fort Worth). Line was only 5-10 minutes.

My continuing pet peeve is there were 14 judicial elections and 13 were unopposed republicans,

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Concerning

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One theory would be that 20 year olds were 12 year olds in 2016 and we may not comprehend their conception of Trump, Democrats, etc.

Not saying I agree with that.

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Also a whole big lot of the most popular social media influencers (especially those targeting young males) are now rabidly pro-Trump. And, surely the consumption of social media among that demographic has increased since 2016. Also COVID broke a lot of brains, young and old alike.

Your track record stinks for one. But more importantly the polling data and observing reality.

Sure, but they were 18 in 2022, we have some sort of data here.