if trump really gets 30% of black males that has to be the result of redpill youtube anti-woke yeah?
incel numbers about to hit 40% in another Trump presidency
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In a shocking development the same thing that has worked for thousands of years is probably going to work again.
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Ralstonâs pessimism for Harris in NV seems to have as much to do with the rural/suburban split as the R/D split. Non-Clark, Non-Washoe makes up something like 10% of the state but 14% of the voting so far. No idea how that compares to years past though.
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VERY unlikely to be in 2024 either.
This was the most plausible scenario I could come up with:
That said, there is a senate race there that would be really nice to win.
No chance Dems lose that Senate seat
What is scaring me is that Kamala probably needs to win the popular vote by 4-5% to win the election. Not seeing a ton of polling indicating that she is going to exceed that by much even if she does achieve it.
Iâve seen several people say here that this might not be as true as it has been previous years. Donât think Iâve seen any rationale for this thought though.
National range seems like it will be in the high 3s low 4s come election day, which means we are gonna sweat for a while.
The Hodge twins and similar posts actuslly give me a bit of hope. They are going much harder this week in the âOmg the election is going to be stolenâ bandwagon than they have the previous month.
I realize the states are all discrete events to some extent also. In other words how much she runs it up by in California doesnât matter much to the results in PA for example. However Biden and Hilldawg both had much larger leads in the polls and we all know how those elections turned out.
I think it has something to do with the update to polling weights after 2016 and 2020, that they are giving more weight to silent trump voters or something like that, so polls will be slightly kore accurate and therefore the margins dont need to be quite as high.
I doubt thats true but its the rationale I have heard.
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I think the rationale, (sorta counterintuitively), is that sheâs not getting the same margins in big Blue states like Cali or NY. So, (if thatâs the case), if she wins the pop vote by only 2%, but most of that is no longer coming from just running up the score pointlessly in New York, then sheâs actually likely doing better EV-wise.
Please god, let the pollsters have finally overcorrected after 2016 and 2020.
But letâs be real, waaf.
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Ive got an idea lets all stop focusing on this and instead divert our attention to something that will happen win or lose on Nov 9.
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2016 and 2020 were quite a bit different.
2016 Hillary closed with a ~3 pt national lead and ended up winning the popular vote by ~2.1. She led by a lot more than 3 pts for the vast majority of the race. And the extent of the structural EC disadvantage was not fully appreciated (tipping pt state was 2.9 pts different from popular vote) These factors all combined to create the feeling that there was a huge polling miss when in fact there wasnât.
In 2020 Biden did in fact close with a ~8.5 pt polling lead and only won the popular vote by ~4.5. The EC disadvantage got even worse where the tipping pt vs popular vote difference was a whopping 3.8.
This time around, it seems that the EC disadvantage is much fairer. Kamala is up ~1.5-2 pts nationally and basically tied in the tipping pt state of PA.
I think weâre largely drawing to this, and itâs not at all out of the question. Then again, there are enough quality polls still floating around that show that weâd still be okay (if uncomfortably close) even if polls are pretty close to accurate (like +/- .5%). ButâŚ
If pollsters still canât get it right and everythingâs incorrectly skewed blue by a few percent, we are all indeed F.
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If the polling miss skews in our favor, we win. If the polling is dead on then it basically will come down to some randomness pushing results by 20k, 30k one way or another. But then you have to fade the steal attempt.
Do you have a link to where I can look at historical 538?