If the soldiers won’t shoot at fellow Americans staging a Jan 6th but this time with guns, it doesn’t matter what side the generals are on.
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Today in “numbers that nobody actually knows what they mean”:
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Arent the early voting nunbers by party registration pretty close in these states? If thats the case and all of those numbers are accurate, this means either reps are breaking to Kamala or Inds are breaking HARD to Kamala
True. We have A LOT of soldiers though.
Trump and Elon will present those numbers as evidence of cheating.
Edit:
https://x.com/GarrettHaake/status/1851588216580645102?t=3wgnS-MRW0Ogv7txjF2zDA&s=19
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Per the PA’s SoS (this in on a University of Florida website), Democrats are +24% in completed voting. So polling at +17 seems not great, I would think. But a poll is just a poll and has a MoE, obviously.
I believe what is close in PA is the “returned %” for each party vs. the # requested.
Paywalled, is this party affiliation of net people moving in and out of states? (ie if Republicans move from PA to FL, it shows as a dem shift to PA and rep shift to FL.)
If so, it seems like Georgia being a big recipient of Black relocation is really what puts it apart from Texas, Florida, and Arizona.
I know it’s dumb to even think about, but it makes me laugh to imagine that Donald Trump is completely aware of people cheating but that there is nothing he can do about it but to Tweet to regular folks to please report it.
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And Texas might be blue if not for dipshit right-wing Californians moving there.
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Understood, but this only works if people start openly talking about this as a coup attempt. If the MSM runs with “legal ambiguity in the election process” it’s a lot harder to justify any sort of major intervention in the process.
A lot hinges upon how clear cut the situation is. Each and every state that goes to Dems above 270 makes it exponentially harder to pull this off. Republicans either have to refuse certification of that state, or a collection of other Dem states with an equivalent number of votes. Once Dems hit 290 EVs, that means Republicans have to decertify 40 EVs: the equivalent of Georgia, Nevada, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Seems like an impossibly tall order.
But in the ~275-265 scenarios, where any one of WI, PA, VA, GA, AZ etc would do, it seems dramatically easier. It’s a question of how much they can muddy the waters surrounding that particular state’s outcome. If we’re counting on a reasonable judicial outcome to a 2000 Florida type of horserace in a pivotal state with a Republican legislature, it’s safe to say we’re fucked. That might have already been true regardless, but this plot seems like it broadens the range Republicans can try for quite a bit.
I know this is very much a thing among Texas dems.
I believe the general theme was that blue and red voters mostly moved to states that matched the 2020 outcome. In PA case, there was a net outflow of migration which comprised of mostly Rs which benefits Ds slightly. Examples below quoted from the article, save AZ, sound good to me
Mr. Biden won Georgia in 2020, the first time a Democrat won the state since 1992. Among more than 140,000 newcomers, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by more than 9,000. Over the same span, at least 10,000 more Republicans than Democrats moved out of the state — a third of them to Florida.
In Arizona, a state Mr. Biden won by less than 12,000 votes, incoming Republicans — a third of them from California — outnumbered incoming Democrats by a margin of three to two. Accounting for departures, Arizona gained about 17,000 Republican voters.
In all three Northern battlegrounds — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — Democrats made small gains through migration. In Pennsylvania, this year’s key battleground, Democratic gains actually came amid population loss: For both parties, more voters moved out than in. But Republicans lost more.
Interesting. I wonder if it’s causal, or just coincidence (I would think coincidence). Georgia went blue in 2020 because it was already attracting Dem voters and that continued. Florida, Arizona, and Texas are big retirement states; Georgia is more of a place people move to start a career and family.
I’ve never been one to root for chaos, but there is a part of me that wants Trump to go balls to the wall with election denial again if he loses. It will be different since he wouldn’t be the sitting president, but I kind of want to see what happens. Kind of.
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And not just seriously, you somehow think he’s the epitome of tough manliness while he’s caked in makeup and has an entire can of Aquanet holding his cotton candy combover together.
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My morbid curiosity would be a little more piqued if he hadn’t already sent a mob of goons to invade the actual Capitol (and succeeded!). I have a hard time imagining Season 2’s finale will be more of a spectacle.
The worst part is we were largely denied any shaming ritual or even forced reflection following that. They’re just like “ok, this time we won’t be so dumb” and the political elites are like “thank you, that’s all we ask.”
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I’m very curious how all the legal challenges will go. I mean, yeah, they’d go poorly, but his team was the nut low in 2020 and a bunch have been prosecuted, but I would imagine his team would be even worse this time around, since nobody with any brains would want to deal with him.
The funny thing is, if you look at that tweet that got posted here where they do a mockup of how he’d look as just a natural bald pale guy, he kinda has that Very Serious Politician look. Dude would probably actually gain votes if he didn’t have the dumb orange facade going on.
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